Here’s John Quiggin‘s reaction to the end of our ten-year European unemployment bet.

Having lost a couple of bets of this kind, I have learned the important proverbial lessons “Fools for arguments use wagers” and “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”.  In this case, I failed  to anticipate EU austerity in general, and the bloody-minded incompetence of Jean-Claude Trichet in particular. Because of this, I assumed the EU would have better macroeconomic outcomes than the US, and that this would trump any difference due to labor market institutions.