Should the Fed placate the markets? Yes and no.
Let’s start with the no. Today’s Bloomberg has a piece by Mohamed El-Erian with the following title and subtitle:
The Fed Should Resist Placating Markets
The central bank needs to avoid being rushed into another policy mistake by making an emergency interest-rate cut.
The Financial Times has a similar piece by Barry Eichengreen:
The Federal Reserve will not let markets dictate a rate cut
Stock moves are not a reliable signal of looming economic downturn
I mostly agree with both commentators. The Fed should not be in the business of trying to prevent big moves in the stock market, and yesterday’s 3% decline in the S&P500 was not even a particularly large move. (Yes, it was significantly larger than average, but I’ve seen numerous moves that were far larger. As I write this, the S&P500 is up over 2%.)
So why do I say “yes and no” at the beginning of this post? I think it depends on exactly what one means by “placate the markets.” Imagine there were a NGDP futures market. In that case, I would strongly support having the Fed adopt a monetary policy that placated the NGDP futures market.
Of course we do not have an NGDP futures market. But we do have many markets that indirectly provide information as to market expectations of NGDP growth. Start with the fact that NGDP growth is the sum of inflation and real GDP growth. And then note that we have (admittedly imperfect) market indicators of expected inflation. In addition, there are many market indicators that are substantially correlated with expected real and nominal growth. Yesterday I recall a market commentator mentioning that risk spreads in the bond market had increased. Risk spreads are certainly correlated with NGDP growth, as borrowers have more trouble servicing debt when NGDP growth slows sharply.
Suppose the Fed constructed a model to estimate market expectations of NGDP growth, which used a weighted average of all sort of relevant market prices. It might make sense to try to stabilize that index, without trying to stabilize any single individual component of that index. Would that be “placating the markets”? I think that’s sort of a question of terminology. The Fed would not have market stability as a primary goal; rather they would merely be trying to stabilize markets to the extent that doing so would stabilize NGDP growth. As a practical matter, they might occasionally respond to severe stock or bond market movements, but not because they cared about the plight of investors.
READER COMMENTS
nobody.really
Aug 6 2024 at 2:24pm
I know, I know, correlation isn’t causation. Still, when I read this–
–my first thought is, KEEP WRITING!
Dylan
Aug 6 2024 at 6:54pm
I admit it. I laughed.
nobody.really
Aug 6 2024 at 10:52pm
As we arrived at our endzone seats, my wife asked if I would go get her a beer before the kick-off. So I did. But the line was long—and as I was paying, I heard the crowd roaring: Apparently our team had received the kick-off and ran it immediately in for a touchdown. And I’d missed the whole thing.
Seething, I return and, standing at the bottom of the rows of endzone seats, called out sweetly to my beloved: “Look, honey, I got yer beer! Did I
M I S S A N Y T H I N G . . . ?!?”
I thought this would elicit sympathetic chuckles from the crowd. Instead, a chorus of fans shouted “Go back! Buy another beer! Let’s run up the score!”
Dylan
Aug 7 2024 at 8:46am
Still my favorite T-shirt
https://xkcd.com/552/
Craig
Aug 6 2024 at 6:47pm
By acting to further narrow the differential with the BOJ the Fed could, counterintuitively, disrupt the yen carry trade.
David S
Aug 7 2024 at 4:15am
Why not invert everything in this post and make a case for the Fed raising rates? After all, money doesn’t seem that tight, the labor market is pretty hot, and we’re still dealing with above trend inflation.
The stock markets need a bottle and a good nap.
Rajat
Aug 7 2024 at 7:50am
Given that in this case, the markets got spooked by the triggering of the Sahm Rule, and given that the Sahm Rule was devised as a coincident recession indicator, I think it makes sense for the Fed to react to the recent market reaction. In the past, perhaps the Fed would not have eased in present circumstances. But now that it knows what has typically happened beyond this point, it seems sensible to placate the markets more than it would or should do otherwise. That’s at least if it weights avoiding recession as highly as lowering inflation, and possibly even if it doesn’t.
Scott Sumner
Aug 7 2024 at 11:16am
In that case, would it be reacting to the market, or to Sahm’s Rule?
Rajat
Aug 7 2024 at 2:57pm
Well, either way, but markets are always reacting to something, and those things are often seen as recession indicators. Like, say, the inversion of the 2-10 yield curve. If markets fall because of the inversion of the yield curve, because that has historically often (though not always) preceded recessions, and if the Fed responds, what would the Fed be responding to? The same goes for the failure of SVB or various European debt crises, or budget impasses, or other things that causes markets to swing bearish.
Thomas L Hutcheson
Aug 7 2024 at 12:31pm
I wish the Fed would do a little bit more to “placate” the TIPS. Granted Treasury ought to give us more, shorter-tenor TIPS. But then they ought to give us a tradable Trillionth that would reflect market expectations of NGDP.
At any rate, Monday should work as a short across the bow that the Fed may be risking to under-target inflation.
Oh, and a reminder that, as Scott has advocated, the Fed needs to multiply its decision points, be more willing to make smaller adjustments in its policy instruments, and stop even hinting in whihc direction future instrument movements will be.
vince
Aug 7 2024 at 6:21pm
No. As Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said: There’s nothing in the Fed’s mandate that’s about making sure the stock market is comfortable.
If a stock market correction creates liquidity problems in Main Street, the financial system needs reform.
Scott Sumner
Aug 9 2024 at 3:23pm
I prefer when commenters show evidence of having read the post before adding a comment.
vince
Aug 9 2024 at 6:18pm
What’s the evidence I didn’t?
Thomas L Hutcheson
Aug 8 2024 at 11:40am
I expanded my thoughts on this point here:
https://thomaslhutcheson.substack.com/p/improving-fed-decisions
Comments are closed.