What are the economic benefits and costs of import tariffs? The economic impact can be examined in one of two ways: on an individual product basis (partial equilibrium, looking at supply and demand for a particular good), or on an economy-wide basis (general equilibrium, looking at many markets simultaneously). Let’s consider each approach in turn.
Suppose the U.S. government imposes a tariff on imported sugar. This tax discourages the importation of sugar and the domestic price rises. The higher price reduces the quantity of sugar that consumers demand but increases the quantity of sugar that domestic producers are willing to supply. As a result, imports fall, being squeezed by lower domestic demand and higher domestic supply. Because it increases domestic production of sugar and decreases domestic consumption, the tariff is equivalent to a production subsidy and a consumption tax.
In changing production and consumption, the tariff redistributes income. Domestic consumers lose from the higher price, which goes partly to domestic producers (in the form of higher prices) and partly to the government (in the form of tax revenue). However, consumers lose more than producers and the government gains, meaning that there are “deadweight losses” (economic inefficiencies) associated with the tariff. The production deadweight loss is the extra costs that are incurred in increasing domestic production (beyond what would have been produced at the world price) and the consumption deadweight loss is the lost benefits to consumers who used to purchase the good (at the world price) but no longer do so. These deadweight losses can be considered lost gains from trade as a result of reducing trade.
This is from Douglas A. Irwin, “Tariffs,” in David R. Henderson, ed., The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics.
With the huge role that tariffs have taken in economic policy in the last 2 months, Liberty Fund and I thought (and think) it made sense to have an article devoted to tariffs. I already have “Free Trade” by Alan S. Blinder, “Protectionism” by Jagdish Bhagwati, and “International Trade Agreements” by Doug Irwin.
The article on tariffs is the latest addition to the online Encyclopedia.
Additional excerpt:
Tariffs are sometimes proposed as a way of reducing a trade deficit. But trade deficits are determined by macroeconomic factors, such as the degree to which capital can move between countries, and the balance between a country’s national savings and investment. Tariffs tend not to affect these underlying determinants of trade deficits and are largely ineffective at reducing them.
For developing countries, tariffs not only reduce consumer choices but also can harm a country’s growth prospects. Countries that are behind the technology frontier need imports of foreign capital goods to help their producers become more efficient. Tariffs that restrict such imports are an obstacle to such countries catching up to the productive efficiency and higher income levels enjoyed by other countries (Irwin 2025).
For example, under its communist leader Mao Zedong, China was largely closed to international trade and remained one of the poorest countries in the world. In the late 1970s, China’s new leader, Deng Xiaoping, opened the economy to trade and foreign investment. For several decades thereafter, China’s economy grew at close to double digit rates, raising incomes dramatically and sharply reducing poverty. A similar process has been observed in countries such as India and Vietnam after they opened to trade. However, trade is an opportunity, not a guarantee of economic success, and other countries in Latin America and Africa have not seen such dramatic growth rates after they reduced their trade barriers.
Read the whole thing. It’s long but it doesn’t feel long. It’s like slicing a hot knife through butter.
[Editor’s Note: Readers may also be interested in Irwin’s recent appearance on The Great Antidote podcast in which he discusses trade and commerce with host Juliette Sellgren.]
READER COMMENTS
Craig
Mar 13 2025 at 5:37pm
Listened to Steve Hanke on David Lin report on YT and he opined that if the US balanced its budget the trade deficit would go away. Thought that tidbit might pique some posters’ interest.
Jon Murphy
Mar 13 2025 at 8:30pm
It’d reduce the deficit, but I doubt eliminate it.
Thomas L Hutcheson
Mar 13 2025 at 9:49pm
It might depend on how the budget was balanced: incresed income or increased consumption taxes. Decreased transfers or decreased public & publicly sponsored investment
Mark Barbieri
Mar 14 2025 at 7:01am
You would still have the “problem” that a disproportionately large number of non-Americans want to invest in the United States. They want to buy shares of our stocks. They want to build factories here. They want to open stores here. Those things require dollars and getting those dollars requires that they run a trade surplus with the United States. As long as more people outside the US want to invest in the United States than people inside the US want to invest outside of the US, we will run a trade deficit. Obviously, that’s not a problem.
Warren Platts
Mar 14 2025 at 8:12am
Look it up: the amount of money spent on greenfield factories is a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of the total foreign “investment.” If the government were somehow able to balance its budget, debt would simply shift to the private sector. Cf. the 2008 financial crisis. Whether that was a good thing or not is debatable, I guess..
Jon Murphy
Mar 14 2025 at 8:50am
True but irrelevant. Greenfield is not the only measure, or even the most important measure, of FDI. Brownfield is just as important. Both contribute to new and more productive production.
Do not limit yourself to the corner of the picture. Look at the whole picture. Those who only look at the bottom corner of the Mona Lisa will miss her smile, her eyes, the interplay of light and shadow. I’m other words, they’d miss her sublime beauty and be confused why millions flock to her each year.
Do not miss the forest by only focusing on one leaf.
Warren Platts
Mar 14 2025 at 10:14am
Oh brother. Do not quit your day job is my advice, Jon. As for the Mona Lisa, it’s precisely the corners that are most important. She’s not just a portrait of a homely wife of some Italian millionaire. She’s supposed to be Mother Earth herself. That’s why Leonardo spent so much time on it.
As for FDI, that is also a red herring. Total FDI is a tiny fraction of the capital account. Most foreign “investment” is merely in U.S. dollars because their own currencies are worthless..
Jon Murphy
Mar 14 2025 at 12:24pm
I have no intention to. Being an economic educator and advisor is a fantastic job. Especially now; the demand for my services is sky-high.
David Seltzer
Mar 14 2025 at 1:43pm
Good point(s) Mark. An import tariff has the same economic impact as an equivalent export tax. Lerner Symmetry Theorem. The exporting country has less money with which to invest in this economy or lend to the US at low interest rates.
steve
Mar 13 2025 at 11:16pm
I watched an interview with Lutnick where he claimed tariffs were going to lower prices for Americans. I think it’s gone beyond rational arguments on the part of tariff supporters to believing that they are magical.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/commerce-secretary-lutnick-americans-shouldnt-brace-recession-rcna195522
Steve
Warren Platts
Mar 14 2025 at 8:17am
I have an idea: instead of tariffs, let’s just impose a 20% VAT. But of course with all sorts of exemptions for domestic stuff like healthcare and everything (not to mention exports). That would be fair because that’s what everyone else is doing.
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 14 2025 at 9:55pm
Warren: I agree if you mean that a VAT of 20% on a good priced $100 will just be added to the price the (final) consumer pays. The only difference with a sales tax is that a VAT will have been collected and paid to the government at each stage of value added, instead of the final seller sending the whole $20 to the government. For the consumers, the effect is the same as with a tariff but for a crucial point: in the case of a VAT or sales tax, no domestic producer receives an implicit subsidy in terms of protection against foreign competition and thus higher prices charged to consumers.
Note that whether other states in the world impose VATs or sales taxes or at different rates is irrelevant, except if it leads people to vote with their feet. You can see this when you realize that a VAT on all goods and services is equivalent to an income tax (of 20% in our example): VAT=sales tax=flat income tax.
The only purpose of a tariff is to discriminate against foreign products in order to give an implicit subsidy to domestic producers–and help the subsidy-giving politicians get elected: Irwin’s Clashing Over Commerce is quite useful to understand that; my Regulation review, “Patriotism as Stealing from Each Other, is but a poor substitute
Historically, as the Henderson-Encyclopedia Irwin article points out, the main advantage of an import (or export) tariff was the ease of levying it, at a small number of ports of entry. Today, the only “advantage” of a tariff is described in the last sentence of the previous paragraph.
Warren Platts
Mar 15 2025 at 3:49am
Let’s break this down some: yes, in principle, with a VAT no domestic producer receives an implicit subsidy in terms of protection against foreign competition. But the TREASURY does precisely for that reason: big country terms of trade gains are better under a VAT than a mere tariff. And either way there are higher prices charged to consumers. So who is fooling who?
Jon Murphy
Mar 15 2025 at 8:12am
“Terms of trade” refers to the ratio of imports to exports. A terms of trade gain means one can import more while giving up fewer exports (ie the price of imports falls relative to the price of exports). You seem to think that terms of trade gain implies a tax revenue gain. That may or may not be the case.
If a big country were able to get a terms of trade gain from a tariff (and that’s a huge if, especially now in a highly globalized world) revenue may increase. It may not. Indeed, given current context, it probably would not. There are better ways, and less destructive ways, for the Treasury to collect tax revenue.
Warren Platts
Mar 15 2025 at 12:41pm
Terms of trade **GAINS** refer to the price reduction that foreign producers are forced to endure because of tyranical tariffs. This is usually labeled “Box e” in standard tariff diagrams. Well, I shouldn’t call them standard because you guys do not teach them in your Econ 101 classes. Hmm, I wonder why because the concept is not that hard. Anyways, I guess my point is you all should be careful what you wish for: you are mad about tariffs because they are so unfair to the foreign producers (and yes the home consumers); but VATs are even worse, and more seductive just because they are better way to extract tax revenue from Foreign. So what should Trump do?
Jon Murphy
Mar 15 2025 at 12:57pm
Which makes one wonder why it is so terribly understood by those who trumpet it as a policy.
Jon Murphy
Mar 15 2025 at 1:38pm
Two answers to that question.
One: the terms-of-trade argument for tariffs is actually quite advanced and subtle. It’s not easy. In a Foundations level class, students rarely have the tools necessary to fully understand and appreciate the argument. Consequently, if students are introduced to the model without fully understanding everything needed to know beforehand, they can get confused and end up badly misunderstanding the model. Foundations are meant to be just that: foundational. That’s why I save it for my 400-level International Trade class.
Two: I have 15 weeks, 3 hours a week with my 101 students. That’s it. I may have another semester or two if they are Business majors, but the majority of my 101 students are non-majors. I have to decide what to cover in that time period. Time is scarce, so I need to economize: what material will give them the most net benefits? Consequently, for the two weeks I spend on trade, I choose to focus on comparative advantage and the “small country” tariff model. Those are the most beneficial to them: they best describe reality and provide a good framework for students to think through things. In my mind, and in the mind of pretty much every economist, the “large country” model is not worth the cost. After all, why spend time on something that is, to quote Paul Krugman et al., “intellecually impeccable but of doubtful usefulness”? To me, it would be a dereliction of my duty if I did spend time on it in 101. Rather, I save it for my 400-level International Trade class.
David Henderson
Mar 15 2025 at 3:57pm
Good answer about opportunity cost of time in class, Jon.
To take a related issue, when I taught the minimum wage, I spent the most time on the supply and demand framework, along with some history of how white unions in the 1930s through 1950s pushed for increases in the minimum precisely to put people out of work. A nagging thought I had in the back of my head was that I should teach the monopsony exception. But to do the graph would take time, not for me, but for them to learn, and they probably would forget it. So instead, I talked them through the monopsony explanation and then explained why it was probably not very important.
Warren Platts
Mar 15 2025 at 5:14pm
No it is not. Just draw the danged box. You are teaching a narrative, not the truth. This is the sort of stuff that has crashed the credibility of the economics profession in general. And will kill your grant proposals, and for good reason too..
Jon Murphy
Mar 15 2025 at 5:45pm
Drawing a model is trivial. To understand it…aye, there’s the rub.
Jon Murphy
Mar 15 2025 at 5:52pm
I do the same. And then, as a pitch for my colleague’s class, I tell them that if they want to learn more, they should take Dr. Meder’s Labor Economics class.