In a recent post, Kevin Corcoran expresses skepticism about the desirability of Pigouvian taxes. He makes the following observation about taxes aimed at discouraging the consumption of unhealthy foods:
One of my favorite recent explanations of this problem came from Scott Alexander. Alexander used the example of how in theory, taxes and subsidies could be used to nudge people into eating a healthier diet. But Alexander then goes on to note:
You’re probably thinking this is an argument that vouchers + taxes/subsidies are a great solution. Nah. I’m saying that in principle they’re a great solution. In practice, they’ve failed spectacularly, because we subsidize the least healthy foods and restrict the production of healthy ones.After providing numerous examples of the kinds of subsidies and restrictions that result from the political process as it actually exists, Alexander concludes “Given our existing government, it shouldn’t be let within a light-year of getting to determine anybody’s diet. Speculating that maybe the people who administer the program will be virtuous competent individuals who act for the good of the public, is saying that the thing which has already happened won’t happen.”
I’m not convinced that the consumption of unhealthy food creates negative externalities–so I don’t disagree with Alexander on this issue. Unhealthy people collect more Medicare and less Social Security. How it all nets out is hard to say. I recall studies of smokers that suggest it’s roughly a wash. So let’s set aside the food question, and consider goods that clearly do create negative externalities, such as the burning of coal.
If we accept that some taxes will exist, it makes sense to raise the tax revenue in the most efficient method possible. That means higher taxes on goods with negative externalities than on goods with positive externalities. Unfortunately, the US government tends to do the opposite, heavily taxing work, saving and investment, but not the consumption of goods that emit CO2.
Here in Orange County, the government recently adopted a congestion tax on the left two lanes of “the 405”. I love this tax, and choose to drive in those two lanes when I travel to my libertarian social events in LA. Some might argue that this is not a tax, as you are free to use the right 5 lanes. Nonsense. That’s like saying that a tax on gasoline is not really a tax because you are free to use a horse. Drivers in the left 2 lanes must pay the congestion tax; it’s not an option. The lanes are even separated by those flexible plastic poles.
[As an aside, these tolled lanes do not substantially favor the rich. I’ve observed that the kind of cars that drive in the pay lanes are very similar to those that drive in the free lanes.]
This example shows that not all Pigovian taxes are a failure. Other successes include congestion charges in cities like Singapore, London and Stockholm. New York City recently decided not to implement its planned congestion charge, even though the history of these policy regimes shows they become much more popular after they are enacted.
In a recent comment, Jon Murphy said:
The pigouvian tax does raise some revenue, but that’s not its goal. The amount it raises is relatively small (in theory, none as all the revenue should be used to offset the dead weight loss from the externality).
I disagree on two points:
1. I see Pigovian taxes as having two goals—revenue raising and negative externality reducing.
2. I don’t agree that in theory the revenue should be used to offset the negative externality. Governments may do this for political reasons, but it’s not a good use of public funds. I know of no theory that says this is a wise way to determine public spending.
One other point. There is a great deal of cynicism about the effectiveness of governments. I share the cynicism, up to a point. But many people draw the wrong conclusion from their cynicism.
The phrase “getting to Denmark” in development economics refers to the idea of making your public sector as efficient and uncorrupt as possible. In Denmark, even major airports and fire departments have been privatized. Of course most countries are more corrupt than Denmark, which leads to a certain healthy skepticism about the role of government. I share that skepticism.
But cynicism can go too far, and veer into fatalism. If we start believing that it’s hopeless to reform government, and that in the long run we’ll all end up with something as dysfunctional as the Venezuelan government, then it’s hard to see how we can make progress as a society. The key is to move toward reform with eyes wide open as to the problem of public choice.
Thus in the past I advocated that the party most opposed to taxes (presumably the GOP) might offer to support a carbon tax, but only if combined with offsetting reductions in some other tax. Thus a carbon tax might be paired with ending the requirement that 401k funds must be withdrawn at age 73. That tax reform package would encourage more saving and investment, and improve the environment.
A cynic might say that such a win-win tax reform is impossible in our highly polarized society. If true, then perhaps we will eventually end up like Venezuela. But I recall a time when this sort of bi-partisan reform was possible. In 1986, Democrats and Republicans agreed to reform the income tax system by combining a Republican goal (much lower tax rates) with a Democratic goal (many fewer loopholes.)
If the cynics are right about the inevitability of government corruption, then there is no hope for the future. More and more inefficiencies will build up over time. I understand that at the current moment in time there is little or no hope for bipartisan reforms. But I also believe that economists should continue to explain the most efficient way to run a fiscal regime, in the hope that at some point in the future the political tide will turn back toward a more idealistic zeitgeist.
READER COMMENTS
Ahmed Fares
Jul 29 2024 at 3:33pm
Some data:
The true costs of treating smokers, the obese and the healthy
Also, this from the New York Times on the same study.
Smokers and the obese cheaper to care for, study shows
steve
Jul 29 2024 at 6:04pm
That is just for health care costs. If you look at total public expenditures smokers cost more. Of course if you just have everyone die a 3 y/o then costs would be even lower.
https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/31/3/641/6120043
“The net lifetime public expenditure is, on average, €20 520 higher for male 18-year-old daily-smokers than for never-smokers, but €9771 lower, for female daily-smokers compared with never-smokers. In male 18-year-old daily-smokers, average lifetime health costs are €9921 higher and average lifetime earned incomes are €91 159 lower than for never-smokers. The corresponding figures are €5849 higher and €23 928 lower, respectively, for women.
Conclusion
18-year-old male daily-smokers are net public spenders over their lifetime compared with never-smokers, while the opposite applies for women. In Denmark, smoking is associated with higher lifetime health costs for society and losses in earned incomes—both for men and women.”
Steve
Scott Sumner
Jul 29 2024 at 11:42pm
I’m confused. If health care costs are lower for smokers, how can total costs be higher? Won’t pension costs also be lower?
robc
Aug 1 2024 at 11:04am
Maybe smokers are more likely to be on welfare?
Thomas L Hutcheson
Jul 29 2024 at 11:41pm
Regardless of how much or little is spent treating diseases of smoking, this is not an example of an externality. An externality of smoking is the annoyance felt by a diner at a smoker at a nearby table.
Andrew Swift
Jul 29 2024 at 3:34pm
I like the idea of punishing wrongdoing and collecting money at the same time, but it is dangerous to get addicted to a revenue stream that you’re, at the same time, trying to make disappear.
I seem to remember reading about taxing gas to make polluters maintain highways, then being unable to maintain the highways when fewer polluters use them.
The point is that pigovian taxes create an incentive for the government to support the very behavior they’re ostensibly trying to eradicate.
Matthias
Jul 30 2024 at 8:27am
That’s as good an argument as any for Scott’s suggestion that these kinds of taxes should go into general revenue, and not be earmarked for specific purposes.
Jon Murphy
Jul 29 2024 at 3:56pm
My comment was based on my recollection of Pigou’s argument. But now you have me questioning that
Craig
Jul 29 2024 at 7:44pm
If you tax cigarettes to fund schools, when people stop smoking that will undermine revenue for the schools, but if you use it to mitigate lung cancer as people stop smoking there will be less lung cancer to mitigate.
Matthias
Jul 30 2024 at 8:28am
Tax cigarettes to improve overal general revenue. Don’t earmark it for lung cancer or schools.
Craig
Jul 30 2024 at 11:03am
I’d suggest there’s a moral obligation to spend it on ‘lung cancer’
robc
Aug 1 2024 at 11:09am
I concur. IF we are going to have pigouvian taxes, they should specifically fund fixing the negative externalities caused by the thing being taxed.
For general revenue, I can only support the single land tax.
Matthias
Aug 3 2024 at 12:09pm
Why? Lung cancer isn’t even an externality of smoking (ignoring the dangers of second hand smoke for a moment.)
The smoker getting lung cancer is perfectly internalised. No need for pigovian taxes there at all.
Smoking is mostly fairly annoying for me as a non-smoker, at least with the restrictions on smoking we have here in Singapore. Ie so most indoor smoking is banned anyway.
(But to take a more extreme position: even a company or a restaurant allowing smoking indoors wouldn’t be an externality that needs to be taxed, as long as there’s no monopsony nor monopoly power going on.)
Kevin Corcoran
Jul 29 2024 at 4:15pm
To clarify one point –
The quote from Scott Alexander was an example meant in support of the case Jon Murphy made, rather than the main argument of my post. And in that example, Alexander wasn’t claiming that unhealthy foods were an example of market failure due to negative externalities. He was simply pointing out that the “tax and subsidize” power of the government, when run through political systems as they actually exist, produce results that subsidize unhealthy foods and tax healthy ones. The more general point common to Jon and Scott Alexander is that the “tax and subsidize” abilities of government will always be subject to those incentives regardless if the goal is to nudge people into different eating habits, or to address externalities. Both approaches suffer from that same problem.
Scott Sumner
Jul 29 2024 at 11:44pm
Thanks. I sort of understood that his example wasn’t ideal for my purposes, which is why I indicated that I don’t disagree with Alexander on that specific issue.
John Hall
Jul 29 2024 at 4:25pm
“New York City recently decided not to implement its planned congestion charge, even though the history of these policy regimes shows they become much more popular after they are enacted.”
I think New Yorkers aren’t opposed to congestion charges in principle. I think the problem was that it was a poorly designed congestion charge. Basically if you cross below 60th Street, then you’re charged $15 for the day. Can we not have the technology to actually charge people for how long they spend driving below 60th Street? In other words, if you spend all day driving around Manhattan, aren’t you contributing a lot more to congestion than just dipping in and out quickly. Also, it’s not like we don’t have significant taxes already to take the tunnels and bridges into Manhattan. Those have an anti-congestion effect.
The NYC charge is also just categorically different from designated lanes to a highway. It hits everyone driving (although for some reason Taxis would have had to pay less than Ubers).
Thomas L Hutcheson
Jul 29 2024 at 11:44pm
I recall the shock at learning what the “congestion tax” actually was; very tenuously related to congestion.
Scott Sumner
Jul 29 2024 at 11:48pm
Yes, the border is arbitrary, but that’s equally true in other congestion schemes that have been successful.
Matthias
Jul 30 2024 at 8:31am
Singapore’s congestion charge border is arbitrary, but the amount they charge you at least is related to current congestion.
It’s not related to how long you drive in the area. (I guess because they didn’t want to have to track whether you park or drive.)
Dylan
Jul 29 2024 at 6:23pm
I was busy writing a response to Kevin’s post, but I’m glad that I refreshed before posting, because Scott said it much better than I would have.
The point about being skeptical but not veering into complete cynicism is I think an important one. Being aware of the ways in which things could go wrong and trying to mitigate them is the way to eventually make things better. And, the not too distant past has plenty of success stories to at least let us know that it is possible. We scrapped a command and control system for acid rain to one of tradable credits with amendments to the Clean Air Act which I think was considered by most a roaring success. The Montreal Protocol shows international cooperation is possible on an externality and was more effective than even its proponents expected.
I find it frustrating that we had a fairly bipartisan academic consensus on how to handle externalities two decades ago, and that support seemed to percolate through society where I would often hear rank and file voters singing the praises of market based systems. Now, those same commentators are more likely to complain about the perils of “late-stage capitalism.”
Maybe this isn’t what attracted others, but what hooked me on economics in my undergrad days was that economics felt so optimistic. Yeah, there were problems in the world, but if you just got the incentives right solving them was not only possible, the problems would practically solve themselves. Admittedly, this was an overly naive view and skepticism is warranted, still I miss that optimism that seemed more prevalent in the field in the late 90s.
Craig
Jul 29 2024 at 7:33pm
“I love this tax”
The government creates Lexus lanes which often straight up causes the heart attack in the other lanes charging you to solve the problem they aggravated.
Scott Sumner
Jul 29 2024 at 11:47pm
They really shouldn’t be called Lexus lanes, as I haven’t found the cars to be any more expensive than in the non-pay lanes. But they do improve efficiency, without creating more inequality.
Dylan
Jul 30 2024 at 7:03am
I don’t really disagree, but didn’t The Millionaire Next Door teach us that you can’t infer much about wealth based on the car someone is driving?
Scott Sumner
Jul 30 2024 at 3:37pm
Agreed, but isn’t there some correlation?
Craig
Jul 30 2024 at 8:42am
The reason I am skeptical is because anyplace I use them there is traffic, the lanes remerge after which there is typically no traffic. CA is obviously infamous for traffic. Miami’s is dangerous cars will jump in and out of that lane if there lanes are jacked up. The one in Atlanta is its own separate lanes, still a problem on the remerge, ie 65mph flow meets 45mph flow. The one NW of Atlanta from the perimeter out to 575 is cool to drive on but it is strangely overdone.
robc
Aug 1 2024 at 11:19am
I use the Denver one between 270 and 470 regularly, but it is toll or Hov 3+. When I am in Denver there is almost always 3 of us in the car, so its free.
I rarely use the reversible express lane between 270 and downtown because I am usually going against its direction.
What annoys me is the lack of an express lane on the south side of town, but fortunately I rarely drive there.
Thomas L Hutcheson
Jul 29 2024 at 11:37pm
“The key is to move toward reform with eyes wide open as to the problem of public choice.”
I agree. My criticism of Public Choice theory is that it has remained pure theory. I’m not aware of a Public Choice theorist explicitly using the it to design legislation.
Of course many standard prejudices of economists (say, not to try to impose optimal import of export duties) can be considered applications of Public Choice theory, but in that case like Monsieur Jordain’s prose, we’ve been speaking Public Choice theory all our lives.
Jon Murphy
Jul 30 2024 at 7:58am
I think that’s a rather poor metric to judge. Any good science helps us understand the world, including the limits to our own powers. Public choice helps us understand why Keyensian and Samuelson synthesis schemes fail. It helps us avoid bad policy as much as “design” good policy.
By the way, your statement is also factually incorrect. Just look at the work put out by Texas Tech, the Mercatus Center, Ole Miss, Cato, and so forth.
nobody.really
Jul 30 2024 at 5:25pm
The US Constitution, 14th Amendment, provides for equal protection of the laws. To promote this outcome, courts tend to subject laws that seek to discriminate on the basis of “suspect catetories” (race, religion, national origin…) to the highest scrutiny. While courts do not outright forbid government discrimination on these bases, they recognize that the propensity to discriminate for forbidden reasons is vast–and the best way to bar that result is to virtually prohibit any discrimination on the basis of these categories. This seems like a Public Choice-y analysis.
Likewise, in Jon Murphy’s Why I am Skeptical of Market Failure Corrections, I concluded that Public Choice might influence your views about the relative merits of a Pigouvian or income tax. I offered the example of a Pigouvian tax on cigarettes, used to help offset an (alleged) added burden they impose on a public health system. Analysts might identify an appropriate level of taxation. But once policitians realized that they could successfully impose a tax on this minority, they would have the incentive to constantly return to this source as a means to raise additional revenues for any purpose. Perhaps the only pratical way to defend unpopular minorities from this fate is to bar Pigouvian taxes and instead require government to raise its revenues on a broader basis–say, an income tax.
Matthias
Jul 30 2024 at 8:40am
Scott, Singapore has a few more interesting examples.
You already mentioned congestion charging. We also have something like a cap-and-trade system for the ownership of cars: about one million cars are allowed on the island, and there’s monthly auctions for the licenses.
We also have a VAT, ie a tax on consumption, and zero capital gains tax. Exactly like you suggest. (However we also have income taxes.)
You mentioned the externalies from bad health (or bad health decisions), and how they might be positive or negative.
Here in Singapore everyone has their own private pension account, so living longer or shorter has approximately no impact on other people, pension-wise.
Healthcare is (mostly) paid for by forced health savings accounts. So if you live a healthy life, you account will be fuller. (Not sure if your descendants can get it cashed out. But you can definitely use it to pay for some gold plated optional treatment, or just to get a nicer bed in a hospital.)
Andrew_FL
Jul 30 2024 at 10:56am
User fees are not taxes. That’s like saying rent is a tax, your electric bill is a tax. Nonsense.
Scott Sumner
Jul 30 2024 at 3:40pm
That’s a quibble about terminology. The logic behind a Pigovian “user fee” is the same as the logic behind a Pigovian “tax”.
Andrew_FL
Jul 30 2024 at 6:30pm
I guess all prices are taxes now, since the rationale is the same (supply and demand)
Scott Sumner
Jul 31 2024 at 5:15pm
I never said anything about “supply and demand”. Bad analogy.
Jim Glass
Jul 31 2024 at 2:06am
We all know that in the 2030s there’s a huge cash-flow problem coming to the government due to the need to finance Medicare and Social Security. On the face of things there’s only one efficient new tax available to raise significant funds, a Pigovian CO2 tax. (The room for a VAT consumption tax already being largely taken by state sales taxes.) Otherwise already existing taxes will have to have their rates increased, with the deadweight cost of these taxes increasing by the square of the increase in their tax rates.
As to the politics of such being likely to produce unhappy, unwanted consequences … a good bunch of years ago Mankiw was doing a lot or arguing online in favor of adopting Pigovian taxes, gasoline taxes etc., with the rates set to offset the environmental cost, and maybe other taxes reduced by an offsetting amount to make it politically palatable. I had the fun of being in one of those discussions and observed that lots of European nations had already gone down this road making the same promises — with the result that, regardless, once actually enacted, the tax rates shot up to the most the political market would bear, with no other taxes cut, and all the new revenue consumed in regular government programs. Which was the same experience many of these countries had when first enacting VATs — a promise of limited rates and other taxes cut offsettingly, then nope and nope. Just bigger government. Thus, several of those European countries are going to face retirement financing crises even worse than ours with no new efficient new taxes available to them.
My conclusion was that if we want to use Pigovian CO2 tax revenues to actually fund our existing government obligations, instead of to fuel growth of government pork-fests while leaving the existing obligations as unfunded as ever, we should indeed make real use of the Pigovian taxes — but not until circa 2030. All this was back in around 2006, after Mankiw left working for Bush II. That’s maybe 18 years or so now. Sadly, I don’t see anything that’s changed since then.
Nicholas Decker
Jul 31 2024 at 3:55pm
The excess consumption of unhealthy foods does indeed produce negative externalities, though. That the externalities are aesthetic does not make them any less real.
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