The earliest Moderna probably would have sold the mRNA-1273 vaccine would have been after it began scaling up manufacturing. A company doesn’t begin manufacturing until it believes in a product. In the timeline above, that’s March 23. But manufacturing takes some time to get going. Let’s assume that by April 1, five weeks from the date the first batch was shipped, Moderna begins offering mRNA-1273 for sale.

Sales start slowly. Supplies are limited. Only the bold and brave get inoculated. The rest of us, and Moderna, get some early, albeit messy, safety and efficacy data. This data helps Moderna improve the vaccine, dose, and dosing schedule. Having a ready market and a steady source of revenue, Moderna scales up production faster than in the timeline above.

In this scenario, inoculations could have begun at least 8.5 months earlier and, perhaps, the pandemic would have ended 240 days and 240,000 lives earlier. There’s little talk of lockdowns and the economy remains resilient.

This is from Charles L. Hooper and David R. Henderson, “The FDA’s Deadly Caution,” AIER, December 16, 2020. In it, we consider various scenarios for what would have happened had we had a truly free market in pharmaceuticals.

The one above is the most optimistic.

Read the whole thing.