Art Carden has written a terrific article this morning on the huge economic progress we have made in the last 2 centuries. It’s “Conceived in Liberty or Conceived in Sin? Exploitation and Modern Prosperity,” Econlib, November 4, 2024.
One excerpt:
We are R.I.C.H.: Rich, Interconnected, Civilized, and Healthy. What does this mean?
First, I’m referring to those of us lucky enough to have won the geographical and historical lottery and who find ourselves in European countries or their offshoots like the United States and Canada. If you’re reading this, there’s a very good chance you’re among the richest 5% of people on earth and the richest 1% of people who have ever lived.
I’ve often pointed out in talks that the most valuable asset many Americans have, even if they own few tangible assets, is their U.S. citizenship.
Art also writes:
Today’s leading killers are diseases of old age and affluence like cancer, not pathogens or warfare. More people die of cancer because more people live long enough to get cancer.
That reminded me of what the late Aaron Wildavsky and his son Adam Wildavsky wrote in “Risk and Safety” in David R. Henderson, ed., The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics:
On the other side of the ledger, cancer deaths continue to rise, though their increase has slowed, and deaths from major cardiovascular diseases remain high.Why these discrepancies? Cancer is largely a disease of old age. When people died at roughly half the present life expectancy, they died before they had an opportunity, if one may call it that, to get cancer.
Note: The pic above is of Aaron Wildavsky.
READER COMMENTS
Jon Murphy
Nov 4 2024 at 4:08pm
I was just discussing this point today with some friends. We were discussing death (as one does, ya know) and the various causes that run through our families. It occurred to me that all of the examples were deaths of affluence: over-eating, cancer, dementia, etc.
Mactoul
Nov 5 2024 at 12:22am
Aren’t the life expectancy trends in US negative? The life expectancy peaked at 78.8 years in 2019 and in 2022 stands at 77.5 years.
Question is how does cancer risk in US compare with the peer countries –many European countries and Japan have longer life expediencies. The other rich countries have approx 82 years.
MarkW
Nov 5 2024 at 5:29am
US life expectancy was briefly falling (chiefly, it seems, due to the pandemic and the epidemic of opiate OD deaths), but lately life expectancy has resumed rising again. Regardless, that does not obviate the point that we live far longer, on average, than in previous eras.
Jon Murphy
Nov 5 2024 at 6:15am
On top of MarkW’s point, my point is beyond just cancer but rather what I’ve called deaths of affluence. Some of those, such as obesity, do tend to kill people fairly young. So, declining life expectancy doesn’t undermine my point.
robc
Nov 5 2024 at 12:26pm
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but IIRC, the US had one of the best results to getting cancer. You are more likely to survive with US healthcare than Euro healthcare, or whatever. This is true for many diseases.
On the other hand, we suck at treating diabetes.
Ahmed Fares
Nov 4 2024 at 4:20pm
The following quote is from a 2015 Forbes article by Tim Worstall, which says that the increased risk of getting cancer is something to be celebrated.
Proof That We’re All Getting Richer; Lifetime Cancer Risks Rising To 50%
Andrew_FL
Nov 4 2024 at 5:15pm
Cancer isn’t a disease of old age-young and old people alike can get various cancers. What makes it seem like a disease of old age is that, since mutations that cause cancer are random, the longer you live the higher the cumulative probability of you getting such a mutated cell and it developing into cancer.
It’s like flipping a coin over and over and over and seeing how long it takes you to get an sequence of heads in a row of some number of times, let’s say ten. You could get ten heads in a row on your first ten flips. You probably won’t. If you keep flipping long enough, eventually you’ll get ten heads in a row. If you live long enough, eventually you’ll get cancer.
Mactoul
Nov 4 2024 at 11:57pm
I believe cancer rates in rising in young and if so, it is misplaced to congratulate ourselves on rising cancer rates and lifetime risk.
Adam Wildavsky
Nov 9 2024 at 4:07pm
Thanks for the shout-out, David! The photographer was my brother Ben.
Comments are closed.