I don’t propose to cheer for the death, financial loss, or other impairment of anybody (sorry if I weep less for rulers), but I do find a silver lining in three benefits of the current Covid-19 epidemic or pandemic. These benefits are not net benefits and certainly not net benefits for everybody: only public goods, by definition, provide net benefits to everybody.
First, the epidemic illustrates the benefits of free speech, even for a tyrant such as president Xi Jinping and the Chinese state. The Economist published an obituary of Li Wenliang, the Wuhan ophthalmologist who tried to alert people to the new epidemic and later caught the virus and died (“Li Wenliang Died on February 7th,” February 13, 2020). It is worth reflecting on what happened just before he became ill:
[On] January 3rd he was summoned to the police station. There he was accused of spreading rumours and subverting the social order. He then had to give written answers to two questions: in future, could he stop his illegal activities? “I can,” he wrote, and put his thumbprint, in red ink, on his answer. Did he understand that if he went on, he would be punished under the law? “I understand,” he wrote, and supplied another thumbprint.
As I previously argued on this blog, free speech is often useful for an autocrat because independent news and opinions can warn him of what his minions don’t know or are scared to reveal (“The Autocrat and the Free Press: A Model,” October 25, 2019).
Second, the epidemic shows that there is no reason to fear economic competition from a planned economy, notwithstanding Donald Trump’s or Peter Navarro’s scaremongering. Attorney General Bill Barr floated the idea of creating a large state corporation by purchasing private producers of communications equipment in order to compete against Huawey. In other words, let’s become socialist in order not to be overtaken by socialist competition! Larry Kudlow, one of the very few economists around the president, declared, in one of his most daring defenses of capitalism thus far, that the administration was not considering this plan. (See Eric Boehm, “Corporate Socialism? Bill Barr’s Suggestion That the U.S. Should Buy Nokia or Ericsson To Counter China Is a Terrible Idea,” Reason Magazine, February 12, 2010.) The management of the epidemic by the Chinese government, which, like all dirigiste governments, is much better at coercion than at entrepreneurship and efficiency, might help counter these fears.
Third, the epidemic shows the benefits of economic growth and international trade. By strangling Chinese growth (“deepening economic damage,” says the Wall Street Journal of yesterday) and perhaps also, if it becomes a pandemic, economic growth in other countries, and by slowing down international trade, the coronavirus will give a hand to the autarkic and zero-sum-game vision of the US administration. No need for a trade war if a pandemic does the job. Trump, of course, will claim that the economic problems he has created were instead caused by the epidemic: untruth does not require coherence. Let’s hope that many people will see that the lessons of the epidemic are quite different.
READER COMMENTS
Alan Goldhammer
Feb 27 2020 at 8:03am
There is a paper in JAMA on line outlining the statistics of infection from China and they are very curious. Rate of infection for those under the age of 20 is 2% of the total and only 10% are under the age of 30. It’s still too early to draw a firm conclusion from the epidemiological data as the case numbers from China are just over 72,000. Data from Korea would be helpful as that country seems to have the 2nd largest case load.
These kinds of viruses will continue to appear at random intervals and ongoing research on pharmaceuticals and vaccines cannot be stopped as it was following the ‘disappearance’ of MERS and SARS several years ago.
Fred_in_PA
Feb 27 2020 at 11:03am
Alan Goldhammer;
A pedantic quibble, if I may: You say, “. . . ongoing research on pharmaceuticals and vaccines cannot be stopped . . . .” I think it obvious you meant we would be extremely foolish to do so.
Christophe Biocca
Feb 27 2020 at 7:52pm
You’ll enjoy this other way the Covid-19 situation exposes bad policy: https://mobile.twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1224042220665307137
Basically the US will not have enough testing capacity for the virus (the CDC will not be able to keep up with demand). Hospitals could relatively easily run the same test on their existing infrastructure. And normally, they could do so with no issues.
But because the FDA declared the situation to be an emergency, different rules apply and hospitals have to get approval for the test before being able to use it.
Pierre Lemieux
Feb 27 2020 at 10:06pm
Interesting, thanks! I suspect we could find other examples. I can’t immediately see what is Scott Gottlieb’s opinion on the thread you linked to, but I wouldn’t hire him as a babysitter for my grandchildren. He is (or certainly was at the FDA) part of the problem: while epidemics and antibiotic resistance threaten, government agencies regulate smoking, vaping, and other lifestyle choices (https://reason.org/policy-study/consumer-surplus-in-the-fdas-tobacco-regulations/).
Mark Brady
Feb 28 2020 at 1:46am
Pierre writes, “only public goods, by definition, provide net benefits to everybody.” Really?
Pierre Lemieux
Feb 28 2020 at 9:21am
You’re right, Mark, this is not correct or, at best, a misleading shortcut. In the conventional Samuelsonian definition, “net benefits to everybody” is a necessary but not sufficient condition of a public good; non-exculability is required for a set of necessary and sufficient conditions. Now, mind you, if we take the Buchananian definition, I was not totally wrong: see econlib.org/library/Columns/y2018/Lemieuxlimitsofliberty.html.
Mark Brady
Feb 28 2020 at 7:46pm
I had in mind two other considerations. (1) Although public goods are by definition both nonexcludable and nonrival, there is no assumption that they benefit everybody or that they confer net benefits on everybody (that depends on the structure of taxation). And (2) private goods could be said to “provide net benefits to everybody,” certainly to all those who choose to buy private goods.
Pierre Lemieux
Feb 29 2020 at 6:07pm
@Mark: Your second point brings to the fore a problem in the definition of public goods. If a public good is only a public good for those who want it, every good consumed by at least two persons is at least a candidate. I don’t remember which economist once observed that a sister is a public good for her two brothers.
Thaomas
Mar 1 2020 at 1:10pm
The “response” to the new corono virus certainly is producing lot of new data on the disadvantage of not making policy using cost benefit analysis. If not learned in time imagine what will happen when an ACC panic arrives 🙁