This is too rich for my blood, but wow:
Many private college presidents are more than a little frustrated with the way journalists and politicians love to quote Clayton Christensen. The Kim B. Clark Professor of Business Administration at Harvard University, Christensen famously predicted in a 2011 book called The Innovative University that as many as half of American nonprofit private colleges would close within 10 to 15 years. Last year, Christensen said he stood by the prediction…
But Mark Zupan isn’t buying the thesis…
In an essay Sunday in The Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, Zupan wrote, “Of course, universities such as ours face challenges. Changes in demographic factors, online learning options, the popularity of various majors, state funding for public institutions and international enrollments create a dynamic marketplace. Nonetheless, we see more opportunities than threats. From this perspective, let me propose a friendly wager. If at least half of all traditional universities fail or merge by 2030, then I will give $1 million to Christensen’s institute (provided it is not disrupted before then!). If, however, his prediction fails to materialize by 2030, then Christensen will contribute $1 million toward Alfred University’s endowment.”
The article ends:
On Sunday, asked if he had heard from Christensen, Zupan said, “The fish hasn’t nibbled yet.”
Inside Higher Ed reached out to Christensen and has not heard back.
As people who’ve actually understood my The Case Against Education know, I’m firmly in Zupan’s camp. I’d happily bet $1000 of my own money on Zupan’s side – with Christensen or anyone else.
READER COMMENTS
David Henderson
Mar 7 2019 at 11:28am
Wow! I know Mark a little and I had no idea that he was such a betting man. The biggest bet I ever proposed, with Paul Krugman, was back in the late 1990s when I proposed a version of the famous Julian Simon bet. I offered to bet $10,000. Paul never answered.
Notice also that Mark is really cutting the guy a lot of slack. Christensen’s claim was about what would happen by 2026 at the latest. Mark is letting him add 4 years.
Mike H
Mar 7 2019 at 1:26pm
On the other hand, he did say “as many as half,” not “at least half.” If I was on Christensen’s side I would counter with whatever I thought was a safe number to expect by 2030, perhaps 25%? 50% sounds like it’s the upper end of the range he’s expecting, and 25% closing would still be extraordinary.
But my guess is he wouldn’t even be willing to bet under these more generous conditions, which is part of the point of offering the bet in the first place.
David Boaz
Mar 7 2019 at 7:29pm
Is a professor likely to be in a position to make such a bet? If not, the offer seems sort of intentionally impossible. If I offered to bet an intern $10,000 on a basketball game, he would presumably have no way to back up his “big talk.” But it would be unfair for me to proclaim that he had no confidence in his prediction.
Matthias Goergens
Mar 8 2019 at 8:21am
The professor could reply with a suggestion for a smaller amount, or try to find sponsors? Or buy insurance.
David Henderson
Mar 8 2019 at 12:25pm
But in this case, the guy offering the bet probably has a lower net worth than the guy he’s offering to bet.
What makes this even more impressive is that Mark Zupan is offering to bet his own money but, if he wins, wants the loser to give the payment to his university.
Seth
Mar 8 2019 at 6:40pm
This bet will never happen, even if Christensen firmly believes he would win. He is a staunch believer of a church that teaches that gambling and betting is sinful. It’s highly unlikely he would do something like this, especially given the public nature of such a bet.
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