Here’s an especially specific claim in Mark Steyn’s America Alone:

The U.S. government’s National Intelligence Council is predicting that the EU will collapse by 2020. I think that’s a rather cautious estimate myself. Ever since September 11, I’ve been gloomily predicting that within the next couple of election cycles the internal contradictions of the EU will manifest themselves in the usual way.

I smell a bet. I propose the following terms to Steyn (or up to any three other people):

If any current EU member with a population over 10 million people in 2007 officially withdraws from the EU before January 1, 2020, I will pay you $100. Otherwise, you owe me $100.

Any takers? (I’ve emailed this link to Mark Steyn’s website, though I doubt it will actually filter up to him).