Categories:
Finance: stocks, options, etc.
It looks like I have two takers in the comments: Michael K and Steve Roth. To seal the deal, I just need you guys to email me and give me enough info so I can identify you “in real life” when it’s time to settle up.
I’m also happy to bet Arnold – if he sticks with his probabilities (90% chance of small gain, 10% of enormous loss), he should, because this bet has a binary payoff. Arnold?
Andy Kessler has not responded to my post or email. The charitable explanations are that he’s too famous to notice my offer, or too rich to find a $100 bet interesting. Want to help change his mind? (email address from andykessler.com)
P.S. The bets from Steve Roth and Michael Kayatta have been confirmed.
READER COMMENTS
Michael Kolczynski
Oct 9 2008 at 6:56am
Arnold keeps beating the mathematical expectation drum, even though you’re betting even money on a positive or negative. I don’t get it.
Grant
Oct 9 2008 at 9:10am
Wait a sec… Arnold says something to the effect of:
Put $100 down and roll a d10. On a 1, loose all your money. On a 2 through 10, gain $5.
I wouldn’t take that bet. Am I missing something here?
Grant
Oct 9 2008 at 9:38am
Eh, never mind, hadn’t had my coffee yet…
michael e sullivan
Oct 9 2008 at 12:32pm
Even though I agree with your position in general (that the bailout is much likely more likely to lose money than gain), I’m on the fence about taking your bet as I think the opportunities for the CBO to declare a gain despite there being a significant loss in real terms that account for all costs are very wide.
If arnold thinks most of the losses happen in a 10% extreme scenario, I don’t understand why he wouldn’t take your bet.
Comments are closed.