It looks like I have two takers in the comments: Michael K and Steve Roth.  To seal the deal, I just need you guys to email me and give me enough info so I can identify you “in real life” when it’s time to settle up.

I’m also happy to bet Arnold – if he sticks with his probabilities (90% chance of small gain, 10% of enormous loss), he should, because this bet has a binary payoff.  Arnold?

Andy Kessler has not responded to my post or email.  The charitable explanations are that he’s too famous to notice my offer, or too rich to find a $100 bet interesting.  Want to help change his mind? (email address from

P.S. The bets from Steve Roth and Michael Kayatta have been confirmed.