The Fiscal Singularity is Near
By Arnold Kling
The Congressional Budget Office just released its latest so-called Long Term Budget Outlook. From the summary:
this report focuses largely on the next 25 years. However, because considerable interest exists in the longer-term outlook, figures showing projections through 2080 and associated data are available in Appendix A of the report
The whole report is important, but I think the sentence quoted above is what is most significant. In the past, the report has focused on the outlook to 2080, where the main issue becomes “bending the cost curve” for health care spending. Now, the CBO seems to have drawn the same conclusion that I would, which is that we do not have the luxury of worrying about the outlook from 2035 to 2080. Instead, we are on a path to have a crisis by 2035.
In addition, I read the CBO as highly skeptical that Congress means it when it comes to holding down Medicare spending. The CBO’s “alternative scenario” reflects that skepticism.
Anyway, I am sure that there is much more to the report. I recommend reading as much of it as you can find the time for. I will probably delve into it more myself over the holiday weekend. Have a nice 4th, as it were.