Daniel Kahneman’s view of the 2008 crash is eerily similar to my own:

Many people now say they knew a financial crisis was
coming, but they didn’t really. After a crisis we tell ourselves we
understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is


Economists have a mystique among social scientists because they know mathematics. They are quite good at explaining what has happened after it has happened, but rarely before.

Still, I can’t agree when he says:

In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible
much of the time.

Given Kahneman’s amazing track record of intellectual contributions, I don’t think he really believes this either.