On Monday, I attended an excellent event at the Hoover Institution on the work and influence of the late Robert Conquest. Recall that he was the person who, with his 1968 book, The Great Terror, “outed” Joseph Stalin as a mass murderer. I took my autographed copy of his book and showed one of Bob’s grandsons how weather worn the binding was compared to the front cover because it had been exposed to the sun since I bought the book in–1968.

In a discussion with one of the other participants during a break, I said that the Pacific Ocean is awfully handy as a protection against a Chinese attack on the mainland. She pointed out that terrorists, Chinese or otherwise, could carry out a terrorist attack within the United States without an invasion. I agreed, but said that would be unlikely.

Immediately, she proposed a bet. I loved that because I’m almost always the one who proposes a bet and this time I didn’t have to.

She has given me permission to state our bet but she said that it’s a private matter between us and so she doesn’t want me to use her name. I agreed.

Here’s her side of the bet:

By January 25, 2021, there will be a terrorist attack in the United States (including the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska) that kills at least 3,000 people.

We’ve bet even odds for $100.

Of course, she and I both hope I win.