Did the Libertarian Party Cost Donald Trump the Election?

Reason ran an article pointing out that a majority of third party voters (including libertarian voters) say they wouldn’t vote at all absent their third party choice on surveys.  In 2016, exit polls indicated their preferences were: “Twenty-five percent said Hillary Clinton, 15 percent favored Trump, and 55 percent said they wouldn’t have voted at all.” It’s just a survey of course, but if it’s remotely accurate it’s extremely unlikely that even in those two states they made a difference.

Of course maybe libertarians should play up this myth, present themselves as the median voter to whom the GOP would need to appeal in order to win the presidential election.

I think there may be a stronger argument that democratic law fare in Michigan keeping Green Party off the ballot helped Biden win Michigan.

I’m surprised that the Libertarians don’t use the strategy that I find implicit in the article:

Namely, where we have something to gain (including merely publicizing the Party’s existence), go ahead and run a candidate.  But in situations where we have little to gain — and perhaps especially may have something to lose (such as a good man or woman in one of the major parties) — sell our votes to the highest bidder.  That is, approach the major party candidates with the inquiry, “What are you willing to pledge to do that would advance Libertarian principles?”  And if one or the other offers us help, offer them help:  the Libertarian Party  will encourage our voters to back that candidate.

As the major parties keep demonstrating, politics is — at least in part — about power.  And being a king-maker is one way to gain power.

I live in a state where there’s no way the libertarian vote could swing the election. Therefore I vote libertarian: a vote for either major party is wasted (i.e., ignored) but there’s some chance a party strategist might look at the libertarian vote and wonder how to attract those in the swing states, so the more libertarian votes the better.

Swing votes are arguably more valuable than base votes: with a base vote, they either vote for the team or stay home; with a swing vote, not only may you lose their vote, but they may vote for the other team.

Thus, we libertarians should make our numbers visible.

BTW, as a libertarian I found myself repelled by Trump. Taxes, schmaxes: it’s spending that ultimately matters and his alleged pre-covid economic boom was a debt-fueled brush fire; he hasn’t done much to reduce regulation; he’s a mercantilist, for heaven’s sake; and the man talks and – to a more limited extent – acts like a populist autocrat, cheering on armed insurrections, showing a willingness to politicize the executive branch even more dramatically than past Presidents dared and, in the process, proving that Congress will not stand up to a popular President. In doing so, he has created a road map for future autocrats. Democracy, and the effectiveness of division of powers, have never felt so shaky.

Excellent analysis. I live in Georgia. Libertarians were on nearly all the ballots. Certainly, I would have left the ballot blank had there been no libertarian candidate. While libertarians may have cost Trump electoral votes here, It remains to be seen with The Senate race in the run off. Because there was a libertarian Senate candidate challenging Perdue those votes might have been enough to bring him under 50% by .04 percentage points.

If libertarians want a check on Biden’s agenda, I suspect they will vote, as I will, for both republican candidates. Perdue and Loeffler.