Henderson versus Wolfers on Lockdowns
The video of my debate with Justin Wolfers is out. Normally, I note highlights but I won’t do so here because this has been a busy week and it hasn’t slowed down even on Friday afternoon.
I think I’ll give a better perspective after I’ve had time to watch the whole video this weekend and make notes on it.
The first minute is Gene Epstein giving ground rules, 17 minutes of my case, about 15 or 16 minutes of Justin’s case, about 5 minutes of my rebuttal, about 5 minutes of Justin’s rebuttal, then about 25 minutes of discussion among Gene, Justin, and me, and then about 5 minutes each of summing up (me first and then Justin.)
On one technical issue that divided us–how to measure the loss in GDP in a quarter–I promised that if I were right, I would post on it and if Justin were right, I would post on it. Justin, Gene Epstein, and I have been emailing about it this morning, and I now think the probability is greater than 0.9 that Justin is right and I was wrong. But it’s an interesting technical point, and I think I’ve come up with a clean way of laying it out. That might not happen until Sunday or early in the next week.
A mutual economist friend of Justin and mine, who I didn’t know until this morning is a friend of Justin’s, wrote me the following and gave me permission to quote:
I was talking to Justin Wolfers about something else and he mentioned how he found you genuine and a great debating partner.
The feeling was and is mutual.