
On December 21, 2024, my friend Dan Klein, an economics professor at George Mason University, sent out an email to a list that I’m no longer on but cc:ed me, with the following offer:
Anyone want to give me 8:1 odds that on Jan 21 Trump won’t have been inaugurated?
He linked to this post on X. I didn’t even bother clicking on the link because those odds looked good to me. We went back and forth a few times. I worried about things like intense storms that might slow it down by a day, and Dan was quite gracious in making the deadline midnight on January 21.
So I offered $800 against his $100 and he accepted. We both hoped that I would win.
I did win, and Dan has already informed me that he has sent the check. He gave me permission to post on this.
Would I have offered 20:1 odds? No. A number of things could have gone wrong. Trump could have been assassinated—he missed one attempt by turning his head. He could have been shot but not killed and laid up unconscious in bed. Dan’s worry, which I now know by having clicked on the X file (pun intended), is that the Democrats would have figured out a way to slow it down. I thought that to be highly unlikely. Whatever the reason for a delay, you can probably see why both Dan and I hoped I would win.
By the way, I have rarely had anything nice to say about Kamala Harris. But I thought she showed tremendous grace in overseeing the reporting of the electoral college votes on January 6.
READER COMMENTS
Craig
Jan 20 2025 at 5:16pm
“I did win”
Don’t worry, along with eliminating tax on tips he will also be eliminating all taxes on gambling winnings connected with his victory in the election.
Craig
Jan 20 2025 at 11:28pm
Also just curious about terms was it specififcally DT? What happens say if DT had passed on from natural causes and Vance sworn in without issue? Who would’ve won the bet?
David Henderson
Jan 20 2025 at 11:59pm
Dan would have won.
Mactoul
Jan 21 2025 at 5:06am
If the president-elect dies before being sworn in, does the vice-president elect get to be the president?
Craig
Jan 21 2025 at 8:28am
Yes, see 20th Amendment
richard johnston
Jan 22 2025 at 8:00am
Because not taxing tips, Social Security benefits, overtime, or gambling winnings will, through the stimulus of supply-side economics, lower a deficit that as a percent of GDP is a formula for a debt spiral…
Alan Goldhammer
Jan 20 2025 at 5:52pm
Do you have anything nice to say about President Trump? If so, what? Not trolling, just curious.
David Henderson
Jan 20 2025 at 11:33pm
Fair question.
A few things.
Here’s one of the main ones:
The president said:
Pierre Lemieux
Jan 21 2025 at 11:43am
Very interesting. I was also intrigued by that bet offer and it inspired my post of yesterday on “the peaceful transfer of power.” There, I share your appreciation for Kamala Harris, with some qualifications.
Craig
Jan 21 2025 at 12:02pm
I woulda called in sick that day myself. But yes, she showed up for somethibg that is so obviously a conflict of interest that it really should be addressed by amendment.
David Henderson
Jan 21 2025 at 11:27pm
It’s worked out 4 times out of 4 in my lifetime:
Nixon
Gore
Pence
Harris
David Henderson
Jan 21 2025 at 11:28pm
Moreover, the 2022 law made it clear that the Veep has no power in this. It’s ceremonial.
Craig
Jan 22 2025 at 9:14am
Let’s take something like the War Powers Act. The WPA is a statute and a theory of constitutional law is that mere statutes cannot change constitutions. Therefore, whatever authority the President has under Art 2 as C-in-C simply cannot be altered by the WPA.
The situation with the VP is different inasmuch as you note there is a ceremonial aspect to it, or, at minimum it acts on presumption that the party ‘counts’ in good faith, indeed any vote tallying somebody somewhere needs authority to count and certify that the ‘count is the count’ but the argument would still exist that the power to certify is constitutionally delegated and cannot be altered by statute.
Indeed its even come to pass that the electoral college itself, designed to be an actual deluberative body, is also d de facto ceremonial.
But is it….really? Its worked, sure, it might never fail….
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