Mortal Ignorance of Methodological Individualism

In an EconoLog post 10 months ago, I commented on a Wall Street Journal report that Yahya Sinwar understood “the Israeli psyche” after spending nearly two decades in jail in that country. He was the Hamas leader thought to have planned the operation that massacred 1200 Israelis and took more than 200 hostages, most of them civilians, on October 7, 2023. I suggested that, if one plans to organize something like that, one should understand methodological individualism rather than focus on some imaginary collective psyche (“Methodological Individualism and the Hamas Ruler,” December 14, 2023). I wrote:

If Hamas ruler Yahya Sinwar had learned methodological individualism, things would be different. He might have been tempted by a broader individualist philosophy and might have treated “his” people in Gaza better, including by not using them as human shields and not spending public money on tunnels. But even if he had only known methodological individualism, his life might not be on the line right now.

Methodological individualism is essential to understanding social groups (the Israeli society, for example) and organizations (the Israeli government). There was a high probability that the political incentives on the other side (and in Iran) would result in a forceful military response, which would be detrimental to the poor Gazans and to himself. Incentives always boil down to individual incentives. It wasn’t sure that the response would respect proper moral restraints vis-à-vis civilians, but that was very likely not part of the terrorist’s concerns; it should be part of an individualist’s concerns, though.

Sinwar, who later became Hamas’s chief ruler, was killed by the IDF on Wednesday.

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A surreal and sarcastic vision of Yahya Sinwar lying in state

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steve

Oct 18 2024 at 12:11pm

There has been a lot written on terrorists and terrorist organizations. I immersed my self in quite a bit of that in the early 2000s. I came away with the idea that most of us just dont understand how they think or why they think what they do. It’s tied up with religion for many of them, revenge for many and lots of emotional appeal. It’s not that they dont respond to incentive but that the incentives dont make much sense to most of us. Anyway, good riddance to the guy.

Steve

Pierre Lemieux

Oct 18 2024 at 3:53pm

Steve: I agree with your last sentence, but let me translate the rest in economic terms. An incentive is a way for an individual to maximize his utility according to his own preferences and his constraints (his feasible set). At least in a purely formal way, his preferences include anything he values, from “money” (fast sports cars, air conditioning, etc.) to the 42 virgins available for him in heaven. An Islamist terrorist has different preferences and thus different incentives. Methodologically, the economist does not bear judgment on preferences (except perhaps to suggest that somebody who loves unicorns may not find any). The economist may point out that butchering 1200 civilians is not an efficient means to ever have air conditioning and that one cannot count on finding efficient means by reading some collective psyche in tea leaves. The economist may also reflect 42 virgins in heaven is an incentive difficult to beat for young men (but not necessarily for the virgins), and that a guy who thinks martyrdom will procure them may be willing to sacrifice air conditioning and fast sports cars. An economist may have other ideas–like, say, that financing education for Palestinian children would probably cost much less than war.

Oct 18 2024 at 9:12pm

I think I get that Pierre, I just think that these people are so far out fo the norm there is little chance we will really understand their incentives so its not all that helpful trying to figure them out. I think they could learn what you are talking about as a concept and it wouldn’t make any difference. In fact, a number of terrorist leaders studied in the US and UK.

john hare

Oct 18 2024 at 6:46pm

I dropped out of school at 12 (6th grade) and went on the road with my parents working carnivals. For a few years, I lived with the certainty that taking money from people in games made us smarter than them. Surrounded by adults that believed this made it quite easy to believe it myself. Some of the games I worked were controlled in various ways that were quite illegal.

Over a half century ago so most details are fuzzy.

Matthias

Oct 20 2024 at 7:26am

The incentives can be rather weird, but are often quite understandable.

See Gwern’s writing about terrorism eg https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-about-terror and https://gwern.net/terrorism-is-not-effective

Ahmed Fares

Oct 20 2024 at 3:22pm

Islamic terrorism has been wildly successful, just not for terrorists.

In the same way that it is jokingly said that war is God’s way of teaching Americans geography, Islamic terrorism is God’s way of teaching Americans about Islam in general and Sufism in particular.

After 9/11, books about Islam were flying off the shelves. In 2014, the BBC reported that in that year, Rumi was the best-selling poet in America.

The ecstatic poems of Jalal ad-Din Muhammad Rumi, a Persian poet and Sufi master born 807 years ago in 1207, have sold millions of copies in recent years, making him the most popular poet in the US. Globally, his fans are legion.

For an example of Sufism in popular culture, first, a quote from Al-Ghazali. Note the reference to the 18th Surah of the Qur’an and Companions of the Cave:

All they have to say about the moral sciences comes down to listing the qualities and habits of the soul, and recording their generic and specific kinds, and the way to cultivate the good ones and combat the bad. This they simply took over from the sayings of the Sufis. These were godly men who applied themselves assiduously to invoking God, resisting passion, and following the way leading to God Most High by shunning worldly pleasures. In the course of their spiritual combat the good habits of the soul and its shortcomings had been disclosed to them and also the defects that vitiate its actions. All this they set forth plainly. Then the philosophers took over these ideas and mixed them with their own doctrines, using the lustre afforded by them to promote the circulation of their own false teaching. There was indeed in their age, nay but there is in every age, a group of godly men of whom God Most High never leaves the world destitute. For they are the pillars of the earth, and by their blessings the divine mercy descends upon earthdwellers as is declared in the tradition from Muhammad — God’s blessing and peace be upon him! — in which he says: “Because of them you receive rain, and thanks to them you receive sustenance, and among them were the Companions of the Cave.” Such godly men existed in ancient times as the Qur’an declares (Cf. Surah 18).–Al-Ghazali “Deliverance from Error” translated by Richard McCarthy.

The 18th Surah of the Qur’an titled Al-Kahf , Arabic for “The Cave”, is where Moses meets a servant of God, while not mentioned by name, is known by Muslims as Al-Khidr, Arabic for “The Green One”. You know him as Yoda in the movie Star Wars. The Companions of the Cave are the Jedi masters. Here’s some context:

This from Star Wars:

“That place… is strong with the dark side of the Force. A domain of evil it is. In you must go.”

“What’s in there?”

“Only what you take with you.”

―Yoda and Luke Skywalker at the entrance to the cave.

Also here:

“Brought you here, the galaxy has. Your path, clearly, this is.”

“You know what I’m looking for.”

“Something lost. A part of yourself, perhaps. That which you seek, inside, you will find.”

―Galen Marek’s clone met by Yoda at the entrance to the cave

Monte

Oct 18 2024 at 1:54pm

If Hamas ruler Yahya Sinwar had learned methodological individualism, things would be different.

Things would have been different for Sinwar had he learned about compassion first. Having been consumed with and motivated by hate for virtually his entire life made him a ‘prisoner of his own device.’ Compassion would have set him free on a course towards learning something more edifying for himself and others (like MI).

Psychologist Bernard Golden, author of Overcoming Destructive Anger: Strategies That Work, believes that when hate involves participation in a group, it may help foster a sense of connection and camaraderie that fills a void in one’s identity. He describes hatred of individuals or groups as a way of distracting oneself from the more challenging and anxiety-provoking task of creating one’s own identity.

Golden further maintains that acts of hate are attempts to distract oneself from feelings like shame:

Hate is grounded in some sense of perceived threat. It is an attitude that can give rise to hostility and aggression toward individuals or groups. Like much of anger, it is a reaction to and distraction from some form of inner pain. The individual consumed by hate may believe that the only way to regain some sense of power over his or her pain is to preemptively strike out at others. In this context, each moment of hate is a temporary reprieve from inner suffering.”

This might help explain why, when Sinwar was told by Yocheved Lifshitz (an Israeli hostage) that he should be ashamed of himself, So war fell silent. A brief moment of self-reflection, perhaps?

Robert EV

Oct 18 2024 at 3:19pm

What Steve wrote.

I’ve seen an ex-Muslim of Palestinian origin claim that a bunch of Hamas, and some regular Palestinians (though assuredly not all) basically see themselves as future martyrs. Any philosophical approach fails when the people involved hold a contradictory philosophical goal as paramount (here martyrdom or total victory as more important than anything else).

As an aside, there are three primary instincts: the self-preservational, the social, and the sexual. We’ve each got all three in varying order. Going off of my initial biases, it seems that methodological individualism preferences the first two, in that order, and not the last. It will necessarily fail for some purposes, including for those who prefer the social over the self-preservational for analytic or goal-oriented purposes.

I’ve long thought that economics in general is also self-preservational first (personal resources), social second (mechanisms of exchange), and sexual last (personalized marketing). Not to say that other people aren’t interested in it for various purposes, but just in general.

Which is just a very long winded way of saying: Be careful projecting your own biases onto other people. Yes, if other people were more like you they wouldn’t make the mistakes they make, or have the problems that they have. But vice versa also.

Oct 18 2024 at 4:01pm

Robert: Methodological individualism is simply the claim that one cannot understand human groups (social consequences) except by starting from what individuals prefer and believe.

Nov 6 2024 at 9:29am

And for a person who’s insight is the other direction: These preferences and beliefs are formed and shaped how? Socially.

Warren Platts

Oct 18 2024 at 5:09pm

There was a high probability that the political incentives on the other side (and in Iran) would result in a forceful military response

I’m pretty sure that was the plan all along. It’s not a real war from the Hamas perspective: it’s a propaganda war. Thus being detrimental to Palestinian civilians is all part of the plan. The more detrimental, the better, in the sense that it will (they hope) turn world opinion against Israel. Whether this strategy will be successful remains to be seen.

Oct 20 2024 at 11:18pm

Warren: Perhaps, but the propaganda war must have some benefits (on this valley of tears) for the rulers. This is only possible if they are not all killed. Of course, as I mentioned, they expect a big reward in the afterworld. All this being said, they would be more efficient if they used methodological individualism in their analysis of their enemies (and their friends, actually) instead of the Kuran.

Oct 18 2024 at 10:14pm

The events of October 7 mask a bigger problem for secular Israelis, which is the rise of the religious right. Even if a peace settlement was reached with the Palestinians, it would make no difference because of the demographics.

Among the threats they highlighted were rising emigration, particularly among the people who have built up Israel’s hi-tech sector and the schools and hospitals vital to attracting the global elite. “Israel’s locomotive of growth is innovation, and that is driven by a small group of several tens of thousands of people in a country of 10 million,” the paper warned. “The weight of their departure from the country is immense in comparison to their number.”

The problem precedes the 7 October attacks and the war that followed, as demographic and political shifts have prompted some secular, liberal Israelis to question their future in a state increasingly dominated by religious traditionalists.

Noam is a father of three with businesses that include a PR consultancy and a cannabis pharmacy. He expected that his 40s would be a time of “less doing, more enjoying”, after decades of hard work.

Instead, he and his wife spend evenings poring over school options in European countries as they weigh up where to start a new life. The war increased the urgency of the search, but it has been a decision born out of longstanding concerns.
“The main reason we are leaving is that we are seeking a better future for our children. Even if peace can be brokered tomorrow, we still can’t see a future we want to be a part of,” Noam said. “The demographics speak for themselves.”

He thinks Israel’s economy will be hampered by the growing number of ultra-orthodox young people not qualified for professional jobs because they do not study maths or science, or speak English. Socially, he fears the rise of religious conservatives will make life hard for secular Jews. “If you ask me what we are headed for, you can look at the Iranian model, where religion plays a major role in daily life.

As war and religion rages, Israel’s secular elite contemplate a ‘silent departure’

Oct 18 2024 at 10:26pm

What the future of Israel looks like:

Now a new fresh hell is raising its head in my country — attempts to roll back women’s rights. Slowly, but surely, this creeping extremism has found its way to Tel Aviv, a bastion of liberalism…a city that is young, dynamic, modern, and secular. A city that prides itself on acceptance. A city I call home because, regardless of one’s sex, race, religion, or sexuality, all can feel comfortable living here.

Imagine my horror (and the horror of every woman I know) to learn of two separate incidents that have occurred in the last couple of months, where young women have been publicly shamed for the clothes they choose to wear.

The first was Tamara Lahav, a teenager told by a bus driver to “cover up” after she boarded his vehicle (on a very warm June day) wearing shorts and a tank top. When she replied that she had nothing to put over herself, he denied her entrance and promptly drove away.

The second, 20-year-old Romi Inbar, was berated in a similar fashion, a few days ago, the driver calling her tank top “immodest.”
Even worse, to my mind: every passenger on the bus (save one) remained silent as the driver humiliated Inbar. The whole incident distressed her so much, she alighted the bus two stops later.

This is not the first time women have been discriminated against on public transport in Israel. There have been several reports in the last few years of women being told to sit at the back of public buses that run through ultra-Orthodox areas and one outrageous story, of late, where a woman was told she would be denied entrance, for fear of upsetting the male Haredi passengers.

The right to bare arms

There is no way that the West is going to keep supporting Israel when you consider that half the voters in the West are women.

Oct 19 2024 at 12:24am

I wonder how Western women feel about the even more stringent and oppressive Muslim regimes who impose Sharia law and its expectations on the their women?

David Seltzer

Oct 19 2024 at 5:31pm

Ahmed, Interesting and pointed as always. Not just Haredi but some conservative strictures as well. Personal note: I was raised in an observant home. My mother’s infirm uncle was visiting for the High Holidays. Our Schul was traditional as women sat upstairs and the men on the first floor. My mother sat with her observant uncle so as to help him. An usher asked then told her to leave and go upstairs. She refused and explained her uncle needed help. This fell on deaf ears. She refused his demands and stayed with her uncle. We left that congregation along with our financial support soon after.

Mactoul

Oct 18 2024 at 10:59pm

Humans are a territorial species and history largely a story of territorial quarrels. But how often is the term territory encountered in voluminous writings of methodological Individualists?

Even the individual psyche is not as individual as it is made out– being greatly formed by one’s culture. Your expansive thoughts might owe to the expansive territories you have access to.

Jim Glass

Oct 19 2024 at 1:21am

Methodological individualism is simply the claim that one cannot understand human groups (social consequences) except by starting from what individuals prefer and believe.

Well, yes, but the same could be said about ants, bees and termites — their hives don’t actually have a “hive mind”, there’s no group ESP, each bug acts as an individual creature. (Apparently ants have individual personalities, with diligent ants having ways to discipline sluggard ants – people actually study ant personalities.)

There is a very small number of species that have developed “ultrasociality”, becoming able to exist in very large numbers via complex social coordination after evolving means to suppress free riding and benefit from division of labor and individual specialization. Humans are one of the “ultrasocial” few. (Jonathan Haidt) So while yes, all behavior results from what individuals think, what individuals think routinely has ultrasocial causes, many rooted in our deep evolutionary past (and not so fit for our world today.) Figuring out the mix is what makes behavioral psychology such a challenging and complex field. (Just ponder all the bizarre and wrong-headed things smart people really believe to fit their social-political tribe, religion, cult … and how angry they get, often in groups, when challenged about it. War!)

Oct 20 2024 at 2:22am

The Economic Origins of Ultrasociality (.pdf), plus response comments, and responses to those, gives a good explanation plus varied takes on the subject. With a bunch of references to Adam Smith.

Oct 20 2024 at 3:15pm

Interesting piece with some very insightful, even profound, commentary from Turchin and others. Skipping ahead to the conclusion:

Where does this leave us? One implication is that we cannot rely on “the market” to save us. In fact, our salvation lies in a more radical and evolutionary understanding of market society that can lead to transformational change. In order to avoid ecological and social disaster, we must get control of the superorganism that is the global market. First steps include global controls on carbon emissions, protection of the earth’s remaining biodiversity, and ensuring an equitable distribution of material output. A more incisive understanding of economic structure and an appreciation for the dynamic expansion and resource exploitation are requisite to alter the economic trajectory.

Sounds a bit Marxian in tone. Shouldn’t we primarily rely on the market, rather than some global “command and control” authority, to ensure our future prosperity?

Comments are closed.

Mortal Ignorance of Methodological Individualism

READER COMMENTS

steve

Oct 18 2024 at 12:11pm

Pierre Lemieux

Oct 18 2024 at 3:53pm

steve

Oct 18 2024 at 9:12pm

john hare

Oct 18 2024 at 6:46pm

Matthias

Oct 20 2024 at 7:26am

Ahmed Fares

Oct 20 2024 at 3:22pm

Monte

Oct 18 2024 at 1:54pm

Robert EV

Oct 18 2024 at 3:19pm

Pierre Lemieux

Oct 18 2024 at 4:01pm

Robert EV

Nov 6 2024 at 9:29am

Warren Platts

Oct 18 2024 at 5:09pm

Pierre Lemieux

Oct 20 2024 at 11:18pm

Ahmed Fares

Oct 18 2024 at 10:14pm

Ahmed Fares

Oct 18 2024 at 10:26pm

Monte

Oct 19 2024 at 12:24am

David Seltzer

Oct 19 2024 at 5:31pm

Mactoul

Oct 18 2024 at 10:59pm

Jim Glass

Oct 19 2024 at 1:21am

Jim Glass

Oct 20 2024 at 2:22am

Monte

Oct 20 2024 at 3:15pm

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