By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.
To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. Six victories ago, I wrote:
A guy who wins one bet could easily have gotten lucky. But someone who wins 10 out of 10 bets – or, in my case, 14 out of 14 bets – almost certainly has superior knowledge and judgment. This is especially true if someone lives the Bettors’ Oath by credibly promising to bet on (or retract) any public statement. A bet is a lot like a tennis match: one victory slightly raises the probability that the winner is the superior player, but it’s entirely possible that he just got lucky. A betting record, in contrast, is a lot like a tennis ranking; people who win consistently against any challenger do so by skill, not luck.
Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”
But still.
P.S. The wiki also includes one bet for which I am a witness rather than a participant. I am open to witnessing other bets.
READER COMMENTS
AJ
Jan 2 2020 at 10:43am
These types of posts serve as a good reminder of the importance of the virtue of humility.
Chris
Jan 2 2020 at 8:04pm
In a sense, Bryan is being quite humble. If I read the sheet correctly, several of the bets he won were actually multiple bets with different people. So, he’s been right on 20 different subjects he’s bet on, but he’s actually won more than 20 bets.
AJ
Jan 3 2020 at 10:34am
What I’m referring to is how he talks about himself and his winnings (e.g. ‘superior knowledge and judgment’) in this post and other prior ones about his record. It’s disappointing and makes me want to read the works of other writers that don’t put so much focus on their intelligence and achievements (i.e. exercise humility).
David M. Gross
Jan 2 2020 at 11:16am
Is it just me or does #11 seem ambiguously worded? “I bet… that… the fraction… will be no more than 10% (not 10 percentage-points!) lower than it is today.”
Does that mean that the fraction will not exceed a number 10% lower than it is today, or that the fraction will not decrease by more than 10% from where it is today?
Kevin Erdmann
Jan 2 2020 at 11:44am
Among other things, this is a great paper trail of things that it was normal to believe.
Jared
Jan 2 2020 at 12:24pm
Reviewing your outstanding bets, it looks like the only one you’re not on track to win at present is the climate one (which you indicated that you expected to lose). Not too shabby, not too shabby at all.
Liam
Jan 2 2020 at 4:26pm
Pedantic, I know, but… wiki? This appears to be a Google Sheet with a table that only you can edit?
Daniel Klein
Jan 3 2020 at 6:59am
Love it! Congratulations.
Ray
Jan 11 2020 at 12:11pm
I wonder if Bryan would make another bet on Brexit happening or not today? He was lucky that the previous one was time-bounded.
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