This is a theme I’ve considered in numerous previous posts, but it’s worth revisiting in light of recent events. Tyler Cowen directed me to the following tweet:
Consider what would happen if you surveyed 1000 Russians with the following question:
A. Do you favor using Russian troops to liberate Ukraine from its Nazi-like government?
Then ask another 1000 Russians the following question:
B. Do you favor invading Ukraine if the locals greet Russian troops with hostility?
I suspect the poll results would differ. So which poll result reflects actual Russian public opinion? It depends what you mean by actual opinion. Do you mean views prior to being well informed of the facts, or views after being well informed on the facts? Views on the invasion they might have imagined, or views on the actual invasion?
Here’s an analogy. You’ll get one set of answers if you ask Americans if we spend too much on foreign aid, and another if you first tell Americans the relatively small amount we actually spend on foreign aid, and then ask them if that’s too much. Which one is the actual opinion? The poorly informed answer or the well-informed answer? I’d say both, but for different purposes.
People sometimes resist my claim by suggesting that public opinion exists, but that it’s not solid like the trunk of a tree, rather it’s fragile and easily blown about like the leaves on a tree. But even that isn’t quite right. We are dealing with something more akin to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. Merely asking the question actually changes the answer. The answers on the foreign aid questions differ because the question can be framed in a way that provides more or less accurate information. The same is true of the two Ukraine invasion questions shown above.
Because I’m a philosophical pragmatist, for me the bottom line on truth is always usefulness. If you want to consider public opinion, you also need to consider the purpose for which it will be used. For instance, are you trying to win an election?
Putin might be interested in Russian public opinion before launching a war. But he can also shape public opinion because he controls the Russian news media. So Putin would make a mistake to rely too much on artificially “manufactured” public opinion. To employ a term used by economists, it’s not “structural”. If he’s smart, he’d also be interested in what public opinion in Russia will be once the Russian people learn that Ukrainians view them as aggressors, not liberators.
So when I say there is no such thing as public opinion, I don’t mean that people don’t have opinions. Rather I am suggesting that there is no single public opinion that is invariant to the way a question is asked. Public opinion can be manufactured in many ways, including political propaganda, but also including the framing of survey questions.
PS. In my previous post, I was skeptical of the willingness of Western governments to impose tough sanctions on Ukraine. (Whether sanctions would be wise is a different question.) This tweet caught my eye:
READER COMMENTS
E. Harding
Feb 25 2022 at 9:28pm
I tend to agree with your view on public opinion, but I think you’re wrong here. Russians know what this intervention is quite well; they have quickly developed well-formed opinions about it.
Mark Z
Feb 25 2022 at 10:33pm
In your example, you could get a complete picture of public opinion by asking three questions: (1) Would you support the invasion if our troops are greeted as liberators; (2) would you support the invasion if they’re greeted with hostility; 3) do you believe our troops will be greeted as liberators?
If most people say ‘yes’ to (1) and (3) but ‘no’ to (2), then you will ascertain that public opinion will turn against the war once it starts, whereas if you only ask ‘do you support the invasion’ you get incomplete information. But that’s not the same public opinion ‘not existing.’ If you ask all the relevant questions, and know the reality of situation, you can ascertain both that Russians will support the invasion now and that they will turn against it once the war starts. Maybe public opinion doesn’t exist, but this is just an example the measurer only measuring along one dimension when the variable of interest is multi-dimensional.
Scott Sumner
Feb 25 2022 at 10:55pm
It’s far more complicated than that. You’d have to know each person’s mind, and how they’d react to dozens of possible contingencies.
Brian
Feb 26 2022 at 1:35am
Another reason public opinion does not exist in Russia (and China) is because people don’t feel safe answering honestly. If they pay attention to the authoritarian controlled media they are likely to produce opinions that were fed to them. If they don’t pay attention then they just don’t know much but would still feel compelled to provide a safe answer.
BC
Feb 26 2022 at 5:52am
Back when the top US marginal tax rate was 35%, a poll indicated that Americans favored raising the top rate. The same poll also indicated that Americans thought the top rate should be 25%. So “public opinion” was that the top marginal rate should be raised from 35% to 25%.
robc
Feb 26 2022 at 9:00am
There are many “man in the street” videos showing that. Especially on college campuses.
First, raise taxes on the rich. Second, the rate should be X, which is lower than current rate. Third, confusion when this is explained.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Feb 26 2022 at 11:23am
Confusion between marginal and average collection and ignorance of what is excluded from “income” surely account for part of this.
robc
Feb 26 2022 at 8:22pm
Very little.
Although based on those interviews, a flat tax of about 10% would be super popular if politicians just shut up.
If no one lobbied or commented or took a position, it would pass with a large majority in a national referendum.
Colin Haller
Feb 28 2022 at 9:44am
A flat tax is only that popular because the vast majority of the electorate are innumerate.
Scott Sumner
Feb 26 2022 at 1:02pm
Great example! This is exactly what I had in mind.
David S
Feb 26 2022 at 10:31am
Scott makes some good points about the inherent unreliability of opinion polls of the general public. Putin has a more advantageous position than elected politicians because he can both ignore and shape public opinion. But, it does have limits. Convincing his oligarchs that they need to make financial sacrifices for the Ukrainian peacekeeping operation will be a hard sell, and get harder as even their supply of Gucci bags is cut off. Convincing Russian mothers that their dead sons were fighting Nazis in Kyiv and are now glorious martyrs is also a hard sell.
Despite the impressive reach of the Russian troll army on the internet I don’t think Putin has the internal security apparatus that Stalin had. He certainly doesn’t have the infantry divisions. Or Lend/Lease.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Feb 26 2022 at 11:19am
I agree but your statement of the Uncertainty Principle is flawed.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Feb 26 2022 at 11:25am
Excluding luxury goods might be a clever move if the Russian opposition can use that to argue that Putin’s invasion doesn’t hurt the oligarchs, only ordinary Russians.
Philo
Feb 26 2022 at 11:53am
You say nothing against public opinion that would not be equally valid against individual opinion. And individual opinion is a useful concept.
Scott Sumner
Feb 26 2022 at 1:03pm
In what way?
steve
Feb 26 2022 at 5:24pm
Nice piece Scott. I think you understate that part about Russia controlling the media trying to make sure that people form the opinions that Putin wants so he will be supported. It is encouraging that word has still managed to leak and there were some protests. Of course a high percentage of the protestors were arrested. Saying something bad about Putin is treason. A true authoritarian country. An hour or two of protests, not blocking traffic. Arrested.
Steve
steve
Feb 26 2022 at 6:15pm
Nice post but I think you understate how much Putin controls media and communications in Russia. Look at eh protests they just had where they arrested over a thousand people. Speaking publicly against Putin is considered treason and cause for arrest. Those people weren’t even blocking the streets.
Steve
Scott Sumner
Feb 27 2022 at 1:30am
I agree that he controls the media, but that was also true in the 1980s. And the Russian people eventually figured out that the Afghans didn’t welcome them as liberators.
Mark Brophy
Feb 26 2022 at 7:44pm
The problem is that military spending in Asia and Europe isn’t counted as foreign aid even though it is foreign aid. We need to leave NATO because it’s obsolete and we’re broke.
Scott Sumner
Feb 27 2022 at 1:29am
I disagree. We probably spend too much, but we wouldn’t be spending the money unless we thought we benefited.
Jose Pablo
Feb 27 2022 at 3:34pm
Following your reasoning, the tittle could have also been “There is no such a thing as American public opinion”.
For “opinioners”, like for “voters”, it does not make any sense taking the time to “educate” themselves on the issue at play. They (like voters) would have “opinions” based on their very particular bias and with the main objective of “signaling” their believes. That’s why “public opinion” can be swung around just by manipulating people bias or their “signaling incentives”.
The obvious corollary is that what people think has no epistemic value whatsoever. It is only relevant to politicians as an ex-ante indicator of the way people is going to vote or, if “public violence” follows “public opinion”, as an indicator of a possible revolution on the making. Both totally useless in Putin’s criminal Russia.
Cove77
Feb 27 2022 at 7:38pm
“It’s not the size of the dog in a fight. It’s the size of the fight in the dog.”-Bob Lilly, Dallas Cowboys.
Harbinger
Feb 28 2022 at 12:59pm
I like reading the Pew public opinion polls because I make the leap of faith that, at the very least, they are conducted honestly and with rigor. However, there are some issues that I don’t believe the general public can really have a solid opinion about because, (1) it’s hard to keep up with everything with the degree of persistence and diligence needed to have a good opinion; and (2) most people are just not that interested or simply aren’t aware of particular issues. Therefore, error margins or not, I don’t put a lot of faith in polls in general. I know pollsters attempt to balance the demographics to provide a clean picture of the polling results but just on my daily routine, if a lot of people I encounter were part of a responding population I would know that the results were badly flawed. Poll them on shopping or which fast food they prefer and I would accept the data unequivocally but on foreign policy or politics? No way!
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