Chris Koresko contacted me out of the blue to tell me that I had won a bet against him. I appreciate his integrity–and his memory.
He reminded me that we had made the following bet:
I [Chris Koresko] will pay you the sum of $25 on or around October 26, 2021 if no nuclear attack has killed 10 or more people anywhere in the world between now and that date, on the condition that you agree to pay me the sum of $100 soon after any such attack occurs between now and that date. The bet is nullified if either of us becomes incapacitated or dies before the debt comes due, or if neither of us remembers the bet within two weeks of the debt coming due.
He wrote me the following:
I seem to recall that some years ago on EconLog you and I had a bet about whether a nuclear exchange would occur somewhere in the world within the next 10 (?) years. I believe you won that bet, and IIRC we bet a bottle of wine.
So I think I owe you a bottle.
Is there an address you’d like me to send it to? Also, is there any wine in particular you’d prefer?
Congrats on winning our bet. I’m very glad you did!
Chris
I thanked him for his integrity and told him that he might be surprised at the number of people who have reneged on such bets.
I gave him my address to send the check.
But in posting this, I just noticed the clause at the end. This means that he owes me zero.
I will tell him.
But the more important big-picture point is that my optimism was justified.
READER COMMENTS
Dylan
Feb 21 2024 at 6:42am
Congrats to all of us on your win.
Reminded me that I think I won an “I told ya so” bet with robc over Covid deaths. Unfortunately this time.
robc
Feb 22 2024 at 9:30am
I think you are right, even with the bogusity in the official numbers.
I should click the link to see for sure, but I remember being a bit off. I am still comfortable with my logic, if not the magnitude of the result.
robc
Feb 22 2024 at 9:35am
I clicked thru, I had completely forgot about that one. I was thinking of the 100k one I referenced.
But I think I was still right on the “at some point”, it just took longer than I thought. Not that I looked thru the data to verify.
Dylan
Feb 23 2024 at 7:33am
I’m sure (hope!) you will be right at some point, but from a quick glance it looks like that hasn’t happened yet?
Here are the CDC numbers for weekly COVID deaths and here are the ones for influenza. It is a little hard to compare directly, since the influenza data measures from the starts of the flu season and the COVID chart tells you the date. But, the troughs for COVID deaths are higher than all but a handful of weeks of influenza, and the peaks of COVID are still about 2.5x the peaks for influenza.
robc
Feb 22 2024 at 9:38am
One other thing…I didnt get covid myself until Dec 2021, so well after that time period, but I will take that over the flu any day. I had a bit of a cough for 2 days and a slight fever. Compared to the last time I had the flu, that was easy.
Dylan
Feb 23 2024 at 7:40am
I’ve had covid twice, and while it might have hit me harder than you, both times my body felt like it had been hit by a truck and every muscle ached…it was also relatively short lived, with the worst of the symptoms gone after two days. But I agree, it’s been a way easier experience for me than the typical flu. Obviously that’s not true for everyone though.
Matthias
Feb 21 2024 at 10:01pm
Interesting bet! I would have offered even stronger odds, and would even be willing to offer them today.
I think the probability of a nuclear attack killing anyone at all in the next ten years is below 10%. (You can work out the payments to operationalise this.)
I would even go further and say with high probability (>90%) there won’t be a nuclear attack at all, regardless of casualties. Eg also no ‘warning shot’ by Russia in an unoccupied part of Alaska or anything like that.
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