Chris Koresko contacted me out of the blue to tell me that I had won a bet against him. I appreciate his integrity–and his memory.

He reminded me that we had made the following bet:

I [Chris Koresko] will pay you the sum of $25 on or around October 26, 2021 if no nuclear attack has killed 10 or more people anywhere in the world between now and that date, on the condition that you agree to pay me the sum of $100 soon after any such attack occurs between now and that date. The bet is nullified if either of us becomes incapacitated or dies before the debt comes due, or if neither of us remembers the bet within two weeks of the debt coming due.

He wrote me the following:

I seem to recall that some years ago on EconLog you and I had a bet about whether a nuclear exchange would occur somewhere in the world within the next 10 (?) years. I believe you won that bet, and IIRC we bet a bottle of wine.

So I think I owe you a bottle.

Is there an address you’d like me to send it to? Also, is there any wine in particular you’d prefer?

Congrats on winning our bet. I’m very glad you did!


I thanked him for his integrity and told him that he might be surprised at the number of people who have reneged on such bets.

I gave him my address to send the check.

But in posting this, I just noticed the clause at the end. This means that he owes me zero.

I will tell him.

But the more important big-picture point is that my optimism was justified.