
Air pollution from coal-fired power plants has negative externalities, damaging human health. Carbon emissions from these power plants contribute to global warming. A recent article in The Economist discusses the recent acceleration in global warming, and suggests that the twin goals of a cleaner air and a cooler planet may be in conflict:
Evidence against different culprits comes from work published recently in Science. Helge Goessling and his colleagues at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven used satellite data and weather records to show that over the course of this century Earth has gradually been reflecting less sunlight back into space than it used to. 2023 was the dimmest year to date. This was apparently due to paucity of cloud cover, particularly in the northern mid latitudes.
Part of this could be down to the new IMO rules [reducing ship engine emissions], but the dimming is too strong to be explained by that alone. Bjorn Samset of CICERO, a Norwegian climate research institute, points to another possibility: the lack of sulphate emissions is not a result of cleaner ships, but of cleaner Chinese coal-fired power plants. Since 2014 China has been making progress in reducing sulphur emissions by closing particularly noxious power plants and scrubbing sulphur out of the flue gases at others. New data leads Dr Samset and colleagues to think the cleanup is having a marked effect across the North Pacific, where cleaner air and fewer clouds will mean more warming.
This graph shows the recent acceleration in warming:
Some have proposed using “geoengineering” to address global warming. A recent article in The Guardian lists three options:
Stratospheric aerosol injection:
Airplanes release tiny aerosol particles that reflect light back into space.
Cirrus cloud thinning:
The least understood method, seeding thin cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere with ice nuclei could reduce their lifespan and increase cooling.
Marine cloud brightening:
Boats release aerosol particles that increase the reflectivity of low clouds.
There are substantial political challenges with any geoengineering project. Some countries might gain while other lose, especially if rainfall patterns were affected. Nonetheless, I suspect that geoengineering will be tried at some point in the future, as the world seems to be giving up on the objective preventing global warming by restricting the emission of greenhouse gases.
Keep in mind that we are already doing “geoengineering” in the sense of artificially changing the world’s climate. The debate is whether we should try to do so in a constructive fashion, rather than a destructive fashion.
PS. I’ve always been a moderate on the global warming issue, about half way between the doomsters and those who dismiss the problem as a myth.
READER COMMENTS
Mactoul
Apr 28 2025 at 4:00am
There are higher order externalities as well. Increase in CO2 is responsible for global greening and increase in crop yields. That a country like India now wastes thousands of prime farming acres in this or that vanity project such as new state capitals, second or third airports for a metro–is a testimony to the power of increased CO2 to increase plant growth esp in drier regions.
Knut P. Heen
Apr 28 2025 at 7:42am
When the burning of fossil fuels took off after WW2, there was significant global cooling until the mid 1970s because the cooling effect of SO2 dominated the warming effect of CO2. SO2 emissions have been dropping since the mid 1970s because of various clean air policies.
From the Laki eruption in 1783 until the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption (which caused the year without summer), there was volcanic winter almost continually for about 40 years due to the three gigantic eruptions during the period each causing severe cooling for 5-10 years (besides the two mentioned, there is an unknown eruption in 1809 found in ice cores but in no written source). Volcanic winters are caused by SO2 emissions from volcanos.
Yet, IPCC use a univariate time-series regression which omits SO2 as an important control variable to estimate the effect of CO2 on temperature. I wonder how much their CO2 estimate will be reduced if they put SO2 into their regression as a control variable.
I would rather have sunshine than Sulfuric acid raining from the sky to keep us cold.
Scott Sumner
Apr 28 2025 at 11:56am
“Sulfuric acid raining from the sky to keep us cold”
I don’t see anyone proposing that.
Warren Platts
Apr 28 2025 at 2:19pm
Remember the hullaballoo over acid rain in the 70s and 80s? It’s caused by sulphates in the atmosphere. Those are the aerosols they’re talking about reintroducing. It wouldn’t be hard: just go back to using dirty jet fuel and dirty fuel oil for container ships, and maybe dirty coal power plants. Kind of ironic, though, burning fossil fuel to cool the planet…
Knut P. Heen
Apr 29 2025 at 11:50am
Fossil fuels contain enough Sulphur to produce large quantities of SO2 when you burn it (unless you use some technology to remove it). SO2 mixes with water in the atmosphere to form Sulfuric acid. CO2 also mixes with water in the atmosphere to form carbonic acid which is less of a problem (we drink it). Rain is the primary way you get SO2 out of the atmosphere and one of the ways you get CO2 out of the atmosphere.
It was not hullaballoo though. Normal rain water has a pH around 5. Acid rain much lower. Fresh water fish and plants do not like too low pH levels.
The last time I read about geoengineering, they actually proposed to use SO2. I am actually much more worried about geoengineering than CO2.
nobody.really
Apr 28 2025 at 2:33pm
Oh, I know a variety of people who favor dropping acid.
Jon Murphy
Apr 28 2025 at 4:05pm
Literally laughing out loud
TravisV
Apr 28 2025 at 9:44am
Prof. Sumner, you didn’t mention that we should create a global temperature futures prediction market!
Why not?
Scott Sumner
Apr 28 2025 at 11:54am
I discussed that in other posts.
Luis
Apr 28 2025 at 11:13pm
Interesting. I guess we can never forget about the law of unintended consequences.
Thomas L Hutcheson
Apr 30 2025 at 11:39am
This really not a hard problem. Tax the particle emissions of the coal plants to air quality optimality and the CO2 emission for CO2 concertation optimality.
Tinbergen all the way down.