Noah Smith has a post that advocates policy reforms to encourage more construction of housing. At one point he makes the following observation:
Housing policy is incredibly tough in America — and in most other rich countries — because housing has to serve two functions at once. It’s both a consumption good and an investment asset. A house is a place to live, but it’s also something that’s supposed to make you wealthier over time, when its price goes up. These two objectives directly conflict — if owner-occupied housing becomes more affordable, that makes most Americans poorer.
When I say “most Americans”, I’m not exaggerating. The homeownership rate is about two thirds, with only small fluctuations. And for middle-class Americans, most of their wealth is the value of their home
This fact sets up a direct and inevitable conflict between two large classes of American society: homebuyers versus homeowners. If you’re buying a house for the first time or looking to significantly upgrade, you want house prices to be as low as possible. But if you already own a home that you’re happy with, you want the price of that home to be as high as possible, so that you can make the homebuyers pay you a lot of money when you’re finally ready to sell. It’s basically a zero-sum game.
But when it comes to new construction, it is very much a positive sum game. (To be clear, in this paragraph Smith is discussing a change in the price of existing housing. So AFAIK there is no disagreement on this point.)
There are two ways to think about questions of economic welfare—money flows and the consumption of goods and services. In my view, a monetary approach often leads to sloppy thinking. Thus some people complain that building lots of new housing won’t bring down the cost of home ownership. But who cares? The point of building lots more housing is not to lower the price (which as Smith rightly points out is a zero sum game), it’s to have more housing. Thus while building more housing might not bring down the price (although ceteris paribus it usually does), it most certainly will provide more housing. Countries don’t get rich by having lots of money (Zimbabwe has plenty), they get rich by having lots of stuff.
When you travel around America, you can usually tell how rich an area is by just looking out the window of your car. But there are a few exceptions. There are some areas in New York City, San Francisco and West LA that are much richer than they look. I’ve been told that the neighborhoods are trendy and expensive, but they look kind of run down, with unimpressive structures that don’t look well maintained.
As many of you know, the cause of this disparity is regulation. Rent control laws, condo conversion restrictions, onerous permitting process, requirements to use union labor, affordable housing mandates, restrictive zoning rules, and many other regulations cause property owners to allow their buildings to fall into disrepair.
The root cause of all this was satirized by Kurt Vonnegut in Harrison Bergeron. The pursuit of excellence leads to inequality. If we allow market forces to create beautiful neighborhoods in these run down areas, then lower income people might be replaced by wealthier residents. So all of this misguided regulation is enacted in the name of “the poor”. Keep the area run down and the poor can still afford to live there.
There’s just one problem. In the long run, it is the poor that suffer the most from the housing shortage. The rich can usually find ways around misguided government regulations, whereas the poor that don’t luck into a rent controlled unit often end up homeless.
If a country has 100 million housing units and 110 million households, then as many as 10 million households may end up homeless. That problem cannot be fixed with rent control, as landlords will prefer to rent to richer tenants that they can be confident will pay the rent on time. YIMBYs understand that the only durable solution is to create another 10 million housing units. It doesn’t even matter if the new units are “affordable”, as new construction will tend to depress the price of existing homes, which would be vacated by wealthy people moving into the new McMansions. Indeed, affordable housing mandates actually make housing less affordable, as they discourage new construction.
So why is housing such an important public policy issue? Why don’t I write articles about the television manufacturing industry, or the dry cleaning industry?
Housing has two special characteristics. First, housing expenditures are a very large share of consumption. Second, it’s a highly inefficient industry, especially in some key coastal areas. And this inefficiency is mostly due to regulation. I would add that the other two major economic problems, health care and education, are also industries which absorb a large share of GDP and are heavily distorted by subsidy and regulation. In all three cases, the media relentlessly focuses on monetary issues, whereas solutions can only come from approaching these industries from an output perspective. The goal should be changing the total quantity and/or quality of output, and producing each unit of output at a lower opportunity cost. Monetary solutions like subsidies and price controls merely paper over the deeper problems.
READER COMMENTS
Daniel Hill
Aug 28 2024 at 2:26am
“There are two ways to think about questions of economic welfare—money flows and the consumption of goods and services.”
And the price of housing has nothing to do with its consumption value. If house prices had risen over the past few decades to say 50% of their current level, who would be worse off? Everyone would still have exactly the same housing consumption.
john hare
Aug 28 2024 at 4:31am
During the recession a radio talk show was going on about how people had lost half of their net worth. It wasn’t well received when I called in and suggested that the house kept them just as warm, dry, and secure as when it had been appraised much higher.
Kenneth Duda
Aug 28 2024 at 7:06am
Haha John that’s too funny.
Next time, call in and say, “I wanted to say how smart affordable housing advocates are for demanding that new housing be cheaper than existing housing. Have we considered doing the same for cars? It’s hard for poor people to buy cars. Let’s fix that by demanding that new cars sell for 20% less than used cars. Think how great that will be for the car market!”
and see if they can figure out they’re being trolled big-time.
David Seltzer
Aug 28 2024 at 2:34pm
John: Good point.
nobody.really
Aug 28 2024 at 5:20am
Perhaps you mean fallen to 50% of current value? Or risen to 150% of current value?
Does the change in the price of housing influence how much benefit a home owner derives from self-provided housing services? In a static model, perhaps not. And maybe not even in a dynamic model–but I’m less sure. Assume that everyone needs a place to sleep. If the price of buying a place to sleep increases (relative to all other goods and services), that would not alter your need for a place, or the amount of sleep you need. But if the price fell, it MIGHT alter how much you sleep there–because you might buy a second or third place to sleep, and divide your time among multiple places.
And if the price of housing increases in some places more than others, this might also influence how much you sleep in your old house–because you might cash out and move to a cheaper house.
In a static model, a universal rise in housing costs would trigger higher property taxes. In a slightly more dynamic model, this wouldn’t occur. (In general, tax authorities set property tax rates as the ratio of a) the amount of money the authorities want to raise and b) the value of taxable property they have in their jurisdiction. If the prices of all property changed proportionately, this would change the tax rate–but the total amount owed for any given property would not change.)
Kenneth Duda
Aug 28 2024 at 7:04am
Yes, thanks Scott.
There are two thought experiments I like to do for people who focus on price instead of quantity.
How about passing a city law that garbage trucks have to stop taking garbage to the dump, and instead launch it at the front of everyone’s homes. What would that do to housing prices in that city? Is that a good thing?
Suppose we passed a law that new cars had to be priced at least 20% less than used cars. What do you think that would do to car production? How is that different than typical “affordable housing” approaches?
People tend to ignore quantities — either because they are too focused on price or because they actively dislike increased quantity — but there is no way to solve the housing price problem without solving the housing quantity problem.
Scott Sumner
Aug 28 2024 at 5:57pm
In a previous post I argued that new cars should be “unaffordable” to the average person. When people buy new cars, their previous car becomes “affordable” to the average person in the used car market. I’ve never bought a new car.
Dylan
Aug 28 2024 at 6:20pm
I missed that post, but I’d be curious about the reasoning. Should new TVs also be unaffordable to the average person? New socks?
I say that as someone who doesn’t even have a car.
Scott Sumner
Aug 29 2024 at 1:50pm
To be clear, I think I said “median priced new car” in the previous post. Thus you might assume that 30% of people buy above average new cars, 30% buy below average new cars, and 40% buy used cars. In that case, only 30% could “afford” an average new car. (Of course I’m using “afford” loosely, not literally.
Scott Sumner
Aug 29 2024 at 1:51pm
There’s not much of a market for used TVs and used socks.
Dylan
Aug 29 2024 at 3:06pm
For the record, I didn’t intend for that to be snarky (ok, maybe the socks part). Just seemed like a strange comment. There used to be a market for used TVs, but then new TVs became better and dramatically cheaper, and the used market mostly disappeared. That’s not a completely unalloyed good, I’m sure a lot of those TVs that would have stayed in circulation longer in the used market now go directly to landfills or incinerators and end up polluting air and waterways. But, my guess is on net, it is an improvement. If a similar trajectory happened with cars, I don’t think it would be a bad thing?
Craig
Aug 29 2024 at 10:27am
“When people buy new cars, their previous car becomes “affordable” to the average person in the used car market.”
Until you need to change the tires on that used Mercedes which still costs an arm and a leg. The price of the car over the life of the car is an important number but the total cost of ownership matters. I just gave my brother my 2013 Kia, I spent more FUELING the vehicle than it cost.
“I’ve never bought a new car.”
So yes the car vacated by the wealthy person becomes more affordable to buy but the expense to operate it isn’t. As it gets older that price is going UP, not DOWN.
Speed
Aug 28 2024 at 7:10am
Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio (US)
Home price to income ratio
Pretty steady from about 1960 to 2000. What changed?
Craig
Aug 28 2024 at 11:07am
Interest rates for one. I mean to look at a nominal price:income ratio is useful for many purposes but ultimately with respect to any financed item the price can also be viewed as 360 EZ2MAKE payments of $X per month.
Scott Sumner
Aug 28 2024 at 5:58pm
“What changed?”
Restrictive regulations on building.
Craig
Aug 30 2024 at 12:20am
I am led to believe that Miami, as of this writing, currently has the third largest skyline of any American city, which honestly strains credulity because as cities go its not really that large of course, but irrespective of whether that is true, there is obviously some willingness in South FL for the city to go UP, like NY and Chicago. Don’t get me wrong, I am aware that there are skyscrapers in LA, but given its size, the downtown area is quite small relative to the population in LA County. I wonder how much of that is simply a legacy of earthquake-fear which in CA would be quite legitimate? Now I know that there are buildings that are earthquake resistant or built to withstand earthquakes, but psychologically how many want to live on the 30th story of an apartment building in an earthquake prone area? I mean, I am not too crazy about the idea in South FL [I stayed in Surfside’s sister building in Miami Beach back in the 90s] much less LA. I’d suggest if LA built apartment towers with the same propensity as Manhattan or Miami I don’t think CA would have much of a problem. LA County had 2500 per square mile, the ocean is to the west, the desert is to the east, so it would seem one needs to get density up and you can do that by making single family homes capable of being multi family homes, and I’m sure that would help, but it seems that things need to go UP.
MarkW
Aug 28 2024 at 7:41am
But if you already own a home that you’re happy with, you want the price of that home to be as high as possible, so that you can make the homebuyers pay you a lot of money when you’re finally ready to sell.
This is not universally true. Rising values also mean higher property taxes. In some places, dramatically higher prices also mean that adult kids can’t afford to buy a house and stay in the same area as their parents live.
My sense is that when people oppose development, it is more often based on fears of damage to their quality of life or changes in the ‘character’ of the neighborhood than it is on fear of loss of equity. You can see this dynamic revealed in the popularity of single-family zoning among homeowners. Zoning diminishes the resale value, so if that were the overriding concern, it would be unpopular. But it also helps preserve the existing neighborhood character, and people seem to value that more than the potential for greater gains if they could sell their house for other kinds redevelopment.
Craig
Aug 28 2024 at 11:09am
“This is not universally true. Rising values also mean higher property taxes”
…..and homeowners tends to go up too…..
Dylan
Aug 28 2024 at 9:07am
That may be the best way to fix it, but of course it isn’t the only way. Number of households isn’t static. You can decrease the number of households by having more people live together. I’m sure you’re aware that the sq ft of housing per capita has roughly doubled since 1970. If more people decided to take on roommates, rent out a basement, or get married and move in together we would easily solve our housing crisis without building a single new housing unit. (Again, not saying this is optimal, just possible without a drastic leap in assumptions)
That pretty much describes my neighborhood, at least at one point in time. Couple of random thoughts on this with no particular conclusion.
1) Myself (and apparently a lot of my peers) have an aesthetic preference for these kinds of neighborhoods, you know the ones that kind of have a bombed out appearance, but there’s a cool juice bar hidden in the back of that old factory.
2) I also have a strong preference for neighborhoods that are economically diverse. One of the things I loved when I moved here was that there was a great mix of people that had lived in the neighborhood for years, industry workers that came to work, recent immigrants, bikers, artists, and others. There was really only one bar, so everyone came there and I met so many people over the years that had lives vastly different than mine. Shortly after people a) left the neighborhood, and b) many more bars opened up catering to the different demographics that remained. Most people seem to really like to self sort, so there’s no longer a common “third space.” You can instead go to where the Dominicans hang out, or the Haitians, or the biker bar, or the lesbian wine bar, or the aging hipster bar. That probably makes most people better off, but I can’t help mourn what was lost.
spencer
Aug 28 2024 at 10:51am
You have new housing and existing housing. You have real investment and financial investment. The 50 percent increase in housing prices during C-19 was driven by financial investment. The economy is being run in reverse.
Paul
Aug 28 2024 at 6:10pm
I bought a property over a year ago with an old house on it, which I renovated, and it also had enough land to create a second lot for a new home. 16 months later, and the subdivision still hasn’t been approved, even though there were no significant regulatory hurdles to overcome for this specific property (this is not true for most properties), the bureaucracy is just incredibly slow. So not only has the construction of the new house been delayed, but I can’t even put the renovated house on the market until the subdivision is complete.
Scott Sumner
Aug 29 2024 at 1:53pm
Yes, that’s exactly the problem
Warren Platts
Aug 28 2024 at 8:04pm
There is always the Japan option: restrict immigration so that domestic fertility determines the population size. In my younger days, Japan had the most expensive real estate on the Planet. Now, real estate there is quite reasonable, even by U.S. standards.
Then there is the Rust Belt option: expensive real estate is a California problem that there is little reason for the rest of the country to care about. Move to Punxsutawney: you can still pick up a house for $30K!
Scott Sumner
Aug 29 2024 at 1:56pm
“Then there is the Rust Belt option: expensive real estate is a California problem that there is little reason for the rest of the country to care about.”
Actually, the rest of the country should care a lot about California, which is the economic engine that supports living standards in places like West Virginia
Warren Platts
Aug 30 2024 at 7:29am
True. On second thought, it’s probably for the best if Californians remain in California! But what can we Appalachians do to help? Not sure that national mandates and subsidies are the answer… So we wish you the best of luck!
Warren Platts
Aug 30 2024 at 7:39am
On third thought, $25K would go a ways in Punxsutawney if not in San Jose. Hmm…
Kevin Erdmann
Aug 28 2024 at 9:33pm
I think the homevoter hypothesis fails in both motivation and effect.
NIMBYs are motivated by status quo bias and various other issues. They fight change in many ways that don’t really map that strongly with rising property values of homeowners. In some cases, that involves excluding undesirables from the neighborhood, and to some extent, that correlates with cross-sectional local property values, but they would be motivated to do the same even with, say, a 100% Georgist tax.Where it leads to price inflation, the effect of NIMBYism within a metro area isn’t to raise the value of the exclusive neighborhoods. It systematically raises the prices the most in the neighborhoods that the undesirables are excluded to.
One reason many analysts have been tricked into overestimating the influence of things like loose lending on home prices is that housing obstruction raises the prices of the poorest neighborhoods the most. I don’t think home voters are motivated to raise the property values of slumlords across town.
Fischel did great work and I think the concept is useful, but it’s one of those explanations that is elegant and seems economically astute that I don’t think matches the details of our current context very well.
Jim Glass
Aug 28 2024 at 11:05pm
I agree. During my decades in Manhattan I knew *many* NIMBYs. Most were renters. They had huge desire to “preserve the historic neighborhoods”, expressed through activist community organizations. I don’t remember ever hearing even a single person saying “to protect and increase the value of my co-op.”
A very different example was my father. He came home after WWII, married my mother, they saved their pennies to build a house in Westchester. He was very NIMBY — firmly opposed to converting the local sheep farms into housing developments, filling in local lakes to build housing developments, all of which happened 100% over time. (One development sank into the former lake it was built on, that was fun to watch,) But he never talked about the value of the house ever.
Jose Pablo
Aug 29 2024 at 7:50pm
How do we know that the US has a “housing quantity” problem?
It varies with the sources, but the Census Bureau reported that there were around 15 million vacant homes in the US in 2022. Around 10-11% of the total housing inventory.
It seems that we “infer” that we have a “quantity problem” from the “price problem”. Forget about the price problem and we could (it seems) house around 10% more population with the existing housing stock.
Scott Sumner
Aug 29 2024 at 9:06pm
That’s a very misleading figure, for all sorts of reasons.
Jose Pablo
Aug 30 2024 at 10:58am
Well, maybe.
But there is no reliable figure of how many houses are missing. Quantity wise.
How should we know? The figure you can get by simply asking the question, do you need a house? would provide an even less reliable answer.
Homeless people are not homeless because there are no houses. For the most part, it is a medical/social condition. Fully functional people solve (better or worse) their “housing problem” with the existing housing stock.
All we know is that they are devoting to housing a significant percentage of their income (more than in the past it seems). But, so what?
In other words, what is the metric that would let us know that the “housing quantity” problem is solved? As per your own advice, it shouldn’t be a “pricing” metric … and should be more reliable than the Census Bureau figure
Jose Pablo
Aug 30 2024 at 12:07pm
And the occupancy problem is, very likely, even worse. Houses are not occupied 100% of the time by their owners. Some estimates put the number of second homes in the US at 10 million. They are occupied 4/5 weeks per year and during this time the primary home is empty.
People traveling just 3 weeks a year would mean another 6% of the housing stock is “vacant”. An empty house provides no valuable service (housing quantity-wise).
And a lot of families live in houses much bigger than they actually need (house ownership is certainly sticky). Which is just another form of “vacancy”.
I am curious about the “rotation” figure for housing: how much of the time are houses “really” “fully” occupied? Like with cars (we use them 4/5% of the time) I am afraid we make very little use of our housing stock’s true potential to accommodate people.
Prices are a key incentive to improve that. But not enough it seems. And certainly, the very bad grasp that people have of opportunity cost (teachers are too busy teaching people trigonometry instead), doesn’t help to optimize the consumption of this good, it seems.
We don’t even have reliable statistics on the level of real utilization of the existing housing stock!
More houses would surely help. But, very likely, there is out there a great opportunity to use much more efficiently the existing housing stock.
Having reliable figures on how much we really use our housing stock would be a great start.
Kevin Erdmann
Aug 30 2024 at 1:06pm
Just like there will always be some unemployment, there will always be some under used housing.
unless you have a workable plan for assigning extra bedrooms in boomers homes to homeless people, we’re going to need more homes.
no matter how you slice it, a lack of supply is correlated with all the problems we are seeing, including homelessness.
Jose Pablo
Aug 30 2024 at 5:25pm
Maybe Kervin.
But there is a great economic opportunity here. This asset, housing, is, very likely, grossly underused. Building more houses will surely consume many more resources than using more of the already existing ones. Even in a “housing deregulated” America.
All that is needed is to come up with a viable business model that facilitates an increase in this asset use and monetizing part of the (huge) economic value that this increase in use will create.
Kind of an Uber of housing. Kind of “residential Airbnb”.
Maybe what the high housing prices are telling us is that we should change the way we look at housing. Not anymore “our castle” or our “piggy bank”, this way of housing, consumes too many resources, (including urban space). The writing is on the wall, we need something more “practical”. You can even argue that this is already happening among the youngest in the big cities.
Time for an “Amazon revolution” in housing!
Comments are closed.