In absolute terms, the US has vaccinated more people for Covid-19 than any other country. But in relative terms, the UK is doing far better. I see three reasons for the success of the UK:
1. The UK has provided about 34 total doses per 100 people, vs. about 26.5 per 100 in the US.
2. First dose first. In the UK, almost all of the jabs have gone to people who have not yet received any doses. In the US, a substantial share of the shots are second doses.
3. The UK has focused very strongly on vaccinating old people first. The US has a mixed system, where the old are just one of many groups that are prioritized.
In recent weeks I’ve been told by friends and family of many cases of young and middle aged people receiving Covid shots. None of these were people with pre-existing conditions or essential workers. I’ve heard of far too many such cases to assume these are flukes—the system is clearly flawed. (And this isn’t sour grapes on my part; I was vaccinated way back in January.)
The US decided to create a complex bureaucratic system. In this sort of rationing regime, those who are well connected or good at gaming the system go first. Here’s is my view of the various systems for rationing:
First: Free market. The high prices induce a much stronger and more rapid supply response.
Second: Old people first. This sort of simple system is harder to game. In the UK, roughly 94% of people over 65 have been vaccinated.
Third: A complex bureaucratic system.
Fourth: The European system, where little vaccine is even available.
I guess the US can take comfort from the fact that we are not last on the list.
PS. Deaths are falling faster in the UK, but only part of that is due to their superior vaccine role out. Covid naturally tends to come in waves, and then people (or governments) respond to surges by changing behavior.
Deaths in the UK are likely to continue falling rapidly, as by mid-April everyone over 50 who wants to be vaccinated (and under 50s with pre-existing conditions) will have already received a jab. At that time, life should return to normal. But will it? A year ago I argued that we under-reacted at the beginning of the epidemic and that we would overreact at the end. I’m sticking with that prediction. I expect excessive precautions in many countries this summer, including the US.
READER COMMENTS
Market Fiscalist
Mar 8 2021 at 2:51am
According to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
the US (0.63/100 a day) is currently ahead of the UK (0.39 doses/100) a day) in terms of the current vaccination rate.
Tom
Mar 8 2021 at 7:00am
Last ~3 weeks the UK rate has slowed significantly. Supply shortages plus doses being held back in order to provide the second dose to those first vaccinated back in December.
Apparently the rate will increase dramatically from 11th March following the arrival of new shipments
Tom
Mar 8 2021 at 6:56am
r.e. the final paragraph:
Rollback of restrictions is the UK is actually quite slow.
Schools went back today.
At the end of March groups of 6 people from up to 6 different households will be able to meet outside.
Mid April sees pubs and restaurants re-open, but only for outdoor seating.
Not til Mid-May will people be able to visit other households indoors.
From there though, as of 21st June all social restrictions in entirety will be lifted. All these dates are “at the earliest” and there is around a 5 week lag between major relaxations in order to collect sufficient data to determine whether further relaxations are possible
robc
Mar 8 2021 at 6:57am
The big questions is, at what point did we cross from under to over reaction?
I would say about May 1, 2020. Possibly earlier.
Richard T
Mar 8 2021 at 10:51pm
One non-economic factor works in the UK’s favour when sticking needles into arms: the buck stops where it starts, with the NHS. (Private provision is not forbidden, but even those who have private insurance will use the NHS when convenient.) Everyone knows where to go: their friendly local doctor … who already knows what comorbidities they do and don’t have.
No, monopolies are not great! But sometimes they work smoothly.
Miro
Mar 9 2021 at 12:25am
> I’ve heard of far too many such cases to assume these are flukes—the system is clearly flawed.
I have also heard of people I know in their 20s without underlying cases. An acquaintance of a friend apparently has a parent who is an executive at an elder care company and that acquaintance got a vaccine despite not working in the business.
Agree that it makes no sense that we aren’t prioritizing those with the highest risk of death (the elderly) first.
robc
Mar 9 2021 at 2:38pm
I think it was overcomplicated. Priority should have been entirely age-based. I know it isn’t perfect but I think it is easy to understand and implement. Close enough is often good enough. Trying to be perfect leads to more inefficiencies.
BC
Mar 9 2021 at 3:08am
“None of these were people with pre-existing conditions or essential workers.”
The problem is that the CDC classifies about 70% of workers as “essential” and 42% as “frontline”. So, which of these 70% of workers gets vaccination priority really does come down to who is “well connected or good at gaming the system”.
“I expect excessive precautions in many countries this summer, including the US.”
Maybe true for CA and NY, but I’m not sure about FL and TX. The PGA Tour was in Orlando this weekend, and the telecast looked like a pre-pandemic tournament. Maybe, spectator capacity was limited — I couldn’t tell visually — but the crowds were densely packed and loud and the players were high-fiving each other. When they first re-opened the PGA last year, no spectators were allowed and the players socially distanced from each other. Apparently, there are large spring break crowds in FL, and there was a large street party in CO over the weekend. A Houston night club was going to host a “mask off” party, but it got nixed by local officials.
art andreassen
Mar 9 2021 at 2:06pm
Scott: Why don’t you compare the UK and the US with the left’s gold standard of health care, the EU? Niall Ferguson credits the UK’s success with Brexit.
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