A Bet I'd Hate to Win, A Bet Bryan Would Love to Lose
By Art Carden
I’ve been influenced by Julian Simon, Robin Hanson, and our own Bryan Caplan when it comes to putting your money where your mouth is, and I’ve come to agree with Alex Tabarrok that “A Bet is a Tax on Bull****.” There’s been an interesting Twittersphere conversation among Tyler Cowen, Alex Tabarrok, Bryan Caplan, Robin Hanson, and others on how informative bets are. Charlie Clarke asked:
— Charlie Clarke (@wagonomics) July 3, 2013
— Bryan Caplan (@bryan_caplan) July 4, 2013
— Art Carden (@artcarden) July 4, 2013
I’d want to take the “yes, there will be a betting culture” side of the bet, and I’d want odds. It’s a bet I know Bryan would love to lose and a bet I’d hate to win, but this raises an interesting question of definition: what would a betting norm among public intellectuals, bloggers, pundits, and scholars look like (a necessary condition before we agree on the bet, obviously)? Another interesting question: what are the institutional barriers to such a norm?