My Complete Bet Inventory: 2016 Edition
With the kind volunteer assistance of Dan Osborne, here is an updated list of all my EconLog bets. All omissions are my fault; if you catch any, please email me. Here goes:
1. “I’ve bet my $200 to Walter’s $1 that Ron Paul will not be
the next U.S. president.” (here) Date (bet
made and/or publicized): 07/11/07. Status: closed, Caplan won.
2. “If France, Germany, and Italy remain on the Euro as of
December 31, 2010, Rabkin owes me $20. Otherwise, I owe him $20.” (here) Date:
01/22/07. Status: closed, Caplan won.
3. “If the Director of the OMB’s 2013 report says that a
shortfall exists [in the repayment of TARP], I win. Otherwise, I
lose. The stakes: I will make up to five $100 bets at even odds.” (here) Date: 10/07/08. Status: closed, Caplan won.
4. “If the official initially reported U.S. monthly
unemployment rate falls below 8.0% for any month between now and June, 2015, I
win $100. Otherwise, Mish wins $100.” (here) Date: 03/21/10. Status: closed, Caplan won.
5. “At any point between now and January 2016, if there is a
year/year increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%, then you
[Bryan Caplan] pay me at that time $100. If we get to January 2016, and
there has not been any 12-month stretch in which the above happened, then I
[Bob Murphy] pay you $100 at that time.” (here) Date:
12/14/09. Status: closed, Caplan won.
6. “I predict that Republicans will regain control of at
least one branch of the federal government at some point between now and
January 20, 2017 (two inaugurations from now). So Arnold, how about a
$100 bet at even odds? [bet accepted]” (here) Date:
05/19/09. Status: closed, Caplan won.
7. “I will bet $100, even odds, that the U.S. price of gas
(including taxes) in the first week of January, 2018 will be $3.00 or less in
2008 dollars.” (here) Date:
01/01/08. Status: open.
8. “If the total number of deaths in France from riots and
terrorism is less than 500 between May 28, 2008 and May 28, 2018, Franck owes
me $50. If the total number is 500 or more, I owe him $50.” (here) Date:
05/28/08. Status: open.
9. “The stake is $US100 and the agreed criterion is that, for
Bryan to win, the average Eurostat harmonised unemployment rate for the EU-15
over the period 2009-2018 inclusive should exceed that for the US by at least
1.5 percentage points.” (here) Date:
05/28/09. Status: open.
10. “If any current EU member with a population over 10
million people in 2007 [Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania,
Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, the Czech Republic, and Hungary]
officially withdraws from the EU before January 1, 2020, I will pay you
$100. Otherwise, you owe me $100.” (here) Date:
04/26/08. Status: open.
11. “I bet at even odds that 10 years from now, the fraction of
American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges will be no
more than 10% (not 10 percentage-points!) lower than it is today.” (here) Date:
10/24/2011. Status: open.
12. “If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility
Rate in 2033)/2<2.0, John owes me $200. If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in
2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2 ?2.0, I owe John $100. We’ve agreed to
use the average of the World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.” (here) Date: 08/30/2012. Status: open.
13. “If the 12 month change of the CPI-U as reported by the BLS is
greater than 5% for any sliding window between today and December 2015 in
monthly increments, I pay Arthur $100.
Otherwise, he pays me $3.” (here)
Date: 05/17/2013. Status: closed, Caplan won.
14. “10:1 that U.S. unemployment will never fall below 5% during
the next twenty years. If the rate falls below 5% before September 1,
2033, he immediately owes me $10. Otherwise, I owe him $1 on September 1,
2033.” (here) Date: 09/24/2013. Status: closed, Caplan won.
15. Yoram Bauman offered me the following terms: “You’re betting avg(2015-2029)-avg(2000-2014)<=0.05C, yes?
If so I accept!” at $333.33 to your $1000. (here) 06/10/2014. Status: open.
16. “$100 says that less than 300 people will die of Ebola within
the fifty United States by January 1, 2018.” (here)
10/20/14. Status: open.
17. “If, by June 1, 2017, the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, or
Washington Post assert that one million of more additional illegal immigrants
have actually received permission to legally work in the United States as a
result of Obama’s executive action since November, 2014, I owe Nathaniel
Bechhofer $20. Otherwise he owes me $20.” (here)
11/18/14. Status: open.
18. “You pay me $x today. If any European country that was
not Communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities
between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $11x.” (initial
final terms here) 09/24/2015. Status: open.
19. Tim Kane offered me the following terms: “I will wager that Trump drops out before Jeb. Any takers?”
for $20. (here)
Date: 10/29/2015. Status: closed, Caplan won.
20. “$200 on whether or not America will have a recession, defined
as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, in the next two years.
Q4 of 2017 being the end of the period. But if that quarter happens to be
negative, then we can look to the next one to see if we were or were not in the
middle of a recession.” (here) Date: 12/30/2015. Status: open.
21. “Steve Pearlstein bets $50 at even odds that Ted Cruz wins the
Republican nomination. I bet against.” (here)
Date: 12/2/2016. Status: open.
22. “Nathaniel Bechhofer bets $40 at 2:1 that Hillary Clinton wins
the 2016 presidential election. I bet against.” (here)
Date: 12/2/2016. Status: open.
Running tally: 9 wins, 0 losses, 13 pending.