Even in authoritarian countries, leaders are reluctant to cross certain lines. Thus in Poland, the communist government was unable to prevent a degree of resistance within the Catholic Church. In some Muslim countries, leaders are forced to tolerate some dissent within the Islamic leadership.
In China, there have been several notable cases of a period of mourning turning into an implicit form of protest. After Zhou Enlai died in April 1976, there was a memorial set up in Tiananmen Square. Over time, the intensity of the expressions of grief steadily increased and became seen as a disguised protest against the reckless policies of Mao Zedong (who died a few months later.). It was hard for the authorities to crack down too severely on a large group of people putting flowers onto the memorial of a much beloved leader like Zhou. Nonetheless, authorities did eventually clear the square.
History repeated itself (in the same location) in April 1989, when there was another outpouring of grief in response to the death of another Chinese reformer (Hu Yaobang). This time, the protests morphed into a strong pro-democracy movement, which eventually led to a violent crackdown.
In light of this history, a recent Financial Times story caught my eye:
Hundreds of mourners have flocked to Li Keqiang’s childhood home to pay their respects to a reformist politician many saw as the “people’s premier”, creating a potential political challenge for Chinese president Xi Jinping.
The popular outpouring for Li, who died suddenly last week aged 68, was mirrored in other cities and on Chinese social media, with many people contrasting the late premier’s relatively down-to-earth style with that of his more aloof colleagues.
The rare public outburst of grief for Li, who was largely sidelined by Xi while in office, presents a delicate situation for China’s ruling Communist party as it contends with a lagging economic recovery and geopolitical tensions, analysts said.
Li was a relatively liberal figure by Chinese standards (albeit not by Western standards.). He spoke out against overly tight Covid controls and favored good relations with the West. He was also in favor of free market reforms of China’s economy:
“Sometimes to praise the path not taken is to make a comment on the path that was taken,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a fellow at the Atlantic Council Global China Hub. “For some, Li Keqiang represented a relatively more laissez-faire attitude towards state-society relations, and he stood for allowing more space for societal and market forces.”.
It’s unfortunate that Li did not become China’s leader in 2012. In retrospect, however, it was no surprise. Almost the entire world moved in a more illiberal direction during the 2010s. And of course China’s shift toward authoritarian nationalism cannot be blamed on jobs lost as a result of the “China Shock”. Nor can the Hungarian shift, or the Turkish shift, or the Indian shift, or the Russian shift, or the US shift. Much deeper forces are at work.
READER COMMENTS
Carl
Oct 31 2023 at 7:56pm
I’m curious what sort of deep forces you are thinking of.
I hear criticism from the Left that liberalism is plutocratic. From the Right I hear the claims that it is soul-less and fragile. We’ve certainly tarnished liberalism over the last few decades with our stupid wars, fiscal profligacy and hypocritical trade policies. I don’t see authoritarianism as having great gravitational pull of its own. It seems more like the world is going through a period of greater entropy because the liberal West decided to jettison a bunch of its mass.
Scott Sumner
Nov 1 2023 at 6:15am
“We’ve certainly tarnished liberalism over the last few decades with our stupid wars, fiscal profligacy and hypocritical trade policies.”
I think it’s a mistake to focus on why liberalism has fallen out of favor in America. It’s in decline almost everywhere; so there must be some very deep reasons that transcend individual countries. I don’t know what they are. Perhaps an aging population?
Matthias
Nov 1 2023 at 9:30pm
Do you (or we) have any idea about the deeper forces for any of the previous shifts throughout history at all? At least on the same level of depth that would explain the seeming retreat of liberalism around the world in the last two decades that you speak of?
I guess as an example railroads, national newspapers and later the advent of radio can explain some of what happened in many countries from the mid 19th to mid 20th century? The industrial revolution is also a big deal. And so are probably shipping containers.
Some people emphasis the role of the Catholic church strongly discouraging cousin marriage in the middle ages in Europe being a ‘deep force’ with wide consequentces, too.
But I’m not too sure about any of this.
Scott Sumner
Nov 1 2023 at 9:59pm
I wonder if the internet plays a role?
Carl
Nov 1 2023 at 1:42pm
I’m not sure it’s age. From the polls I read, the younger generations in America and Europe believe less in the virtues of capitalism and our system of government than the older generations.
I’m more suspicious of the effects of the growth of government entitlements. I think it increases the appeal of authoritarianism by creating a greater need for a grasping government. I combine that with our abandonment of our principles that I spoke about above as things that decrease the gravitational pull of our model.
Scott Sumner
Nov 1 2023 at 9:59pm
True, but in most countries the support for authoritarian leaders comes disproportionately from older voters.
BC
Nov 1 2023 at 10:59pm
Support for domestic authoritarian leaders is only one type of illiberalism. I would say excusing or even celebrating Hamas’s atrocities against Israel is also highly illiberal and that seems to be concentrated among younger people, at least in the West.
Carl
Nov 2 2023 at 12:40pm
Good point. And when I combine it with BC’s point below, I wonder if you both could be right. In Martin Gurri’s book, “The Revolt of the Public” he points out how social media is undermining institutions and replacing them often not with new or reformed institutions but nihilism. I remember you, Scott, pointing out how Trump and Sanders simply used our political parties as vehicles for their own ambitions whereas traditionally the parties had molded, shaped and chosen the candidates. It’s like what happened in Rome as the Republic lost its legitimacy. Mobs and strongmen chose the leaders; they were no longer chosen through deliberation in the Senate. Maybe that’s what’s happening to our institutions. As they relentlessly have their legitimacy challenged they become less forces for stability and shared prosperity and more spoils to be fought over and controlled. The elderly try to control our institutions to protect themselves from change; the young to try to force change. Maybe that’s the banana republic state you always speak of: the state in which the institutions are no longer mediating, stabilizing entities with long time horizons, but are instead tools to be wielded by one group or another against others for short term gains.
BC
Nov 1 2023 at 11:28pm
US soft power exports a lot of American culture to the rest of the world. Just because a trend is global doesn’t necessarily mean that the underlying cause isn’t American. Right illiberalism (e.g., Hungary, Russia) may be foreign in origin, but left illiberalism (wokeness) may have been exported from the US. Academia, media, and Hollywood are big sources of American soft power, and they seem to export more left illiberalism than right illiberalism.
Perhaps, the end of the Cold War and demise of the Soviet Union have paradoxically led the West to become more illiberal. We no longer have a negative example of an Evil Empire to contrast against and serve as a cautionary tale of what happens when liberalism wanes. Liberalism reached its peak in the 1990s (and perhaps early 2000s) as the West triumphed over communism. Then, communism faded into distant memory. I think there’s a parallel to the Star Wars sequel trilogy where the end of the Empire doesn’t lead to permanent victory for the Light Side. Eventually, the Dark Side re-emerges with the First Order. Or, something like that.
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