Early in her political career, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made a particularly noteworthy comment. During an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, she was questioned about a claim she made about Pentagon spending that was rated “Four Pinocchios” by the fact-checkers at the Washington post. While she acknowledge her error, she also has this to say:
If people want to really blow up one figure here or one word there, I would argue that they’re missing the forest for the trees. I think that there’s a lot of people more concerned about being precisely, factually, and semantically correct than about being morally right.
Uncharitably, one might interpret this to mean she’s effectively saying, “it doesn’t matter if what you’re saying is true, what matters is that saying it shows you’re a good person.” But a more charitable interpretation is that she meant “morally right” here to mean something akin to when someone is said to be “morally certain.” Moral certainty falls short of fully established certainty, but close enough to it to justify acting on that basis. So perhaps being “morally right” in this context just means the claim accurately alludes to some kind of big picture truth even if the specifics don’t hold up on examination.
Recently published research suggests that partisans are often aware when leaders in their movement make factually incorrect claims. As the authors summarize, they find that, “voters often recognize when their parties’ claims are not based on objective evidence. Yet they still respond positively, if they believe these inaccurate statements evoke a deeper, more important ‘truth.'” For example, they found that many Trump supporters who support the former President’s claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him are fully aware that this claim is factually incorrect. Nonetheless, they still invoke these claims because they, “see these allegations as important for ‘American priorities,’ because they believe the political system is illegitimate and stacked against their interests.” In their mind, it doesn’t matter that Trump’s claim that the election was stolen isn’t “factually correct” because they see it as “morally right” – it speaks to a “deeper truth” about the political system being corrupt, claims of elites who seek to thwart the will of the people, and so forth.
Of course, people tend to apply this leeway about factual correctness rather unevenly. The authors point out that, “Voters from both parties cared more about ‘moral truth’ when they were evaluating a politician they liked. When evaluating a politician they didn’t like, on the other hand, voters relied more on strict factuality.” If you’re progressive, you’ll tend not to care about Ocasio-Cortez’s numerous factual errors because you’ll think her statements still gesture towards important truths – just as Trump supporters often overlook his factual inaccuracies for the same reason.
I think there is an additional factor at play for why people seem to accept and repeat political claims they know are factually incorrect. Making these kinds of statements serves as a sort of loyalty signal. Within a tribe, loyalty is signaled by making overly strong claims that one expects to be taken “seriously but not literally.” For this reason, fact-checking can often be ineffective because the people who make or repeat such claims don’t actually take them to be statements of fact in the first place.
Just as many Trump supporters make claims about stolen elections they know are untrue in order to signal their dedication to some other ideas, I suspect that many people who have repeated so-called “woke” mantras do so simply as a way to signal their progressive bone fides, and not because they actually believe the statements themselves are in any way true. This brushes up against another idea I have called “political noncognitivism” – the idea that people’s political claims are often meant to express attitudes and are not intended as factual statements.
If these kinds of statements are meant to signal political loyalty and to gain status within an in-group, this creates unfortunate dynamics. Status is a zero-sum game – one can only increase in status by rising in status above others. In order to gain status with this kind of loyalty signaling game, there is a competitive pressure to make statements that are more and more disconnected from reality, in order to distinguish yourself. In a way, this also sends a stronger loyalty signal.
You don’t signal your loyalty to a group by making statements that anyone from any group would agree with. “The sky is blue” won’t win you any points with any in-group. But consider one of the claims made by Ibram Kendi in his book Stamped from the Beginning: The Definitive History of Racist Ideas in America, where he claims “When you truly believe that the racial groups are equal, then you also believe that racial disparities must be the result of racial discrimination.” Kendi is claiming that all differences in aggregate outcomes among different populations can only be explained by racial discrimination, and if you believe there can possibly be any other explanation for even a fraction of the variance, then you are a racial supremacist of some sort. One’s willingness to endorse this sentiment sends a very strong loyalty signal precisely because of its tenuous connection to reality. In the same way, the more obviously absurd Trump’s claims about a stolen election are, the stronger a loyalty signal it becomes when one is willing to affirm and repeat those claims.
But there’s an externality problem here. Sending these kinds of signals raises one’s status at the cost of polluting public discourse. When ninety-nine people repeat these mantras while not personally believing them to be true, the one person in a hundred who makes such statements sincerely both gains confidence in the veracity of their disconnected ideas, and loses any opportunity to experience the collision between truth and error, as John Stuart Mill phrased it. People who repeat these mantras insincerely provide intellectual cover for true believers in these ideas to take power within institutions and put these ideas in practice.
One dramatic case of these dynamics, I believe, could be seen in the so-called Pizzagate conspiracy theory. In 2016, conspiracy theorists spread the idea that there was a wide-ranging operation in child-trafficking among the elites, and children were being held as part of this operation in the basement of Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria in Washington D.C. – despite the fact that this establishment didn’t even have a basement. Eventually a true believer went there wielding a rifle, intent on setting the children free. Luckily he was apprehended by the police and nobody was injured. But what stands out to me about this case is that while thousands – perhaps tens of thousands – of people online claimed to believe this child-trafficking ring existed, and while many sent harassing phone calls or left mean comments online, only one person actually tried to do something to stop it. This suggests to me that many – perhaps most – of the people who endorsed this conspiracy theory online didn’t really believe it to be factually true. They claimed to endorse it and promoted it as a form of loyalty signaling, and doing so would send an extremely strong loyalty signal to the in-group precisely because the whole idea was patently absurd. But when enough people are willing to do this, it opens the door for the occasional person who really believes it to do something terrible.
Recently, I saw the following claim on Twitter: “A good sign that wokeism is going out of vogue is that even leftists, who once blithely allowed the woke to hijack their movement, are starting to pretend that they saw through wokeism all along, as if they’ve always been at war with Eastasia.” I have a slightly different take here. I suspect that most leftists, privately, did in fact “see through wokeism all along,” but nonetheless vocally affirmed it for reasons of status and loyalty signaling. As the halo around Ibram Kendi and Robin DiAngelo has begun to tarnish, many leftists are now more willing to openly say that they never actually believed any of that stuff. But still, some people actually did believe it. And many of those true believers, with the cover given to them by such loyalty signaling, have moved into positions of significant institutional power. Much of Kendi and DiAngelo’s corpus have become official policy within governments, major corporations, and medical institutions – even if most of the people who publicly affirmed those ideas never actually believed them to be true.
READER COMMENTS
David Seltzer
Sep 24 2024 at 9:43am
Kevin: Good work here. “Much of Kendi and DiAngelo’s corpus have become official policy within governments, major corporations, and medical institutions – even if most of the people who publicly affirmed those ideas never actually believed them to be true.” Therein lies the threat to individual liberty. It takes considerable fortitude to be the voice in the wilderness challenging disingenuous virtue signaling. The fate of the whistle blower is often met with hostility or worse. Just ask Edward Snowden or Julian Assange.
Jon Murphy
Sep 24 2024 at 10:31am
We saw this recently with the Springfield Ohio pet eating nonsense. JD Vance, when called out about the dubiousness of the claims (and, apparently, he knew they were false when making them) defended his actions saying they were about creating attention to the suffering of Americans.
Although, this leads to an important question: if these deeper truths are, well, true why is there a need to fabricate examples?
Craig
Sep 24 2024 at 11:31am
The Republic has jumped the shark. If the myth sets you free, make it a legend because the taxation is unrelenting. Don’t NY my FL.
steve
Sep 24 2024 at 12:24pm
There used to be some liberal Republicans and some conservative Democrats. That’s largely gone, at least among leadership. Now you have to pass litmus tests and everyone believes, or acts as is they do, the same things. This has slowly been increasing for at least the last 30 years. As an aside, since I like data and numbers, it has become increasingly difficult to find people, my bias would be especially on the right, who either use data at all or will agree upon what are reliable data sources. Now, some guy on Youtube is considered a more reliable data source than BLS, FRED, census bureau, any accredited university or any major journal.
Trump has accelerated it on the right as the GOP has become a cult of personality. At this point the party is inseparable from him. On the left a small group of academics and influencers were pushing an extreme version of wokeism that probably wouldn’t have spread very far but then George Floyd happened. However, most fo the DEI programs taken up were just for show and are now being dropped. They have little to show in the way of results. That’s at least partially because corporations weren’t really committed to them. Also, they were far from universally accepted. My network didnt have a DEI program and if you used the N word at work you got a lecture at worst. Also, many of the DEI programs were either poorly run or outright scams.
Steve
Monte
Sep 24 2024 at 12:24pm
Sure. When fringe lunatics hear things like “It’s time to put a bullseye on Trump” or “Trump is an existential threat to democracy”, what are they to do, other than eliminate the threat?
Loyalty signaling in this case amounts to nothing more than a scaled-down version of renversement des alliance – an unstable alliance formed and ended by the the political party for which it is temporarily convenient. The democrat party initially embraced wokeism, which has now become unwanted ballast that must be discarded.
Monte
Sep 24 2024 at 7:46pm
Jim Glass
Sep 24 2024 at 11:49pm
Here’s a classic study going back near 20 years, successfully replicated. Political partisans had their brains scanned while being shown, basically, politicians lying. The hypothesis was that when partisans saw their own side lying they would go through exercises in motivated reasoning to rationalize away the problem, and the brain scans would reveal the steps in the process. The hypothesis proved correct — and then there was more…
This your brain on politics. Mine too. Getting us addicted to believing our own lies.
A couple notes: [[] This experiment was conducted “in the run-up to one of the most polarized presidential races in recent history”, 2004 — which was singing Kumbaya around the campfire compared to this year’s. [] Realizing *other* people get addicted to believing their own obvious lies is easy. When I used to describe this experiment to my Manhattan liberal friends they’d go, “Yes, that’s so true about conservatives (mmmm, feels so good).” But the thought that *you* get addicted to believing *your* obvious lies is very uncomfortable — as opposed to “no, that’s them, never me (mmmm, feels so good).” Yet this is universal, nobody’s exempt. It’s in our wiring. “Self deception” is a fascinating topic in behavioral and evolutionary psychology. (And one of the reasons why lie-detector results generally aren’t admissible in court.) There’s no remedy for it except to be aware of the risk to oneself and check one’s priors regularly. Though it certainly feels better not to. 🙂
MarkW
Sep 25 2024 at 9:42am
For example, they found that many Trump supporters who support the former President’s claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him are fully aware that this claim is factually incorrect.
I’m no Trump supporter — but it probably was stolen in a real sense. No, not by ballot box / vote counting cheating, but by the FBI lead suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story (which revealed the corruption of Joe Biden and the whole Biden family) as probable ‘Russian disinformation’. The election was so close that this very likely was enough to tip the balance. The lesson of the late revelations about Hillary’s closet mail server was learned and the negative information was kept out of the ‘respectable press’ (except to explain it away as Russian intel) and confined to those few outlets read by people who were already disposed to vote for Trump.
Trump is bad — the reaction to Trump has been much worse, doing far more long-term damage to our government and society that Trump could ever have done. It’s another election to vote Libertarian and brace for whichever flavor of idiocy is in store.
Monte
Sep 25 2024 at 10:30am
As illustrated with these recent attempts on Trump’s life. What better way to motivate fringe lunatics than to characterize your opposition as an existential threat?
The democrat party entered into a renversement des alliance (an unstable alliance formed and ended by the the political party for which it is temporarily convenient ) with the woke movement, which has now become unwanted ballast that must be discarded.
nobody.really
Sep 25 2024 at 11:17pm
Two people have been accused of trying to kill Trump recently.
The rally gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, had no clear motive. He was a registered Republican who had given money to a liberal cause, with a Democratic mother and a Libertarian father and sister. His phone revealed that he googled the locations of various politicians and public figures, as well as googling “major depressive disorder.” This suggests to me that he picked his target largely at random, perhaps in a desire for fame.
The golf course gunman, Ryan Wesley Routh, appeared to be motivated by the desire to defend Ukraine. Trump has praised Putin and, as far as I know, never criticized him—an astonishing fact about a man who never misses an opportunity to complain and criticize. Trump tried to blackmail Zelensky over US military aid—an act that led to Trump’s first impeachment. Finally, Trump claims to have a plan to end the war in Ukraine before he would even take office. I don’t know of any statement that anyone could have made that might have provoked Mr. Routh more than Trump’s own statements.
Kevin Corcoran
Sep 26 2024 at 11:41am
In support of this, in the days leading up to the shooting, Crooks had apparently been doing internet searches for rally locations for both Trump and Biden, and it appears as though he picked Trump for the simple reason that Trump was having a rally that was both closer and sooner to his location. It’s impossible to know for sure, but it seems very likely that had Biden held a rally closer and sooner, he might well have attempted to carry out his shooting there.
Monte
Sep 26 2024 at 12:26pm
Pure speculation with no supporting concrete evidence. It’s also been revealed Crooks donated to ActBlue, a progressive democrat fund-raising organization. But this line of reasoning, that these individuals are simply motivated to go after random targets of opportunity and that Trump is to blame for any attempts on his life ignores the larger elephant in the room – the violent rhetoric aimed at Trump that just as likely motivated the perps to carry out their actions.
Monte
Sep 26 2024 at 3:04am
There are many celebs he could have taken out with much less trouble if this was his motive. I’m hard-pressed to believe Trump was a random target. Regardless, this does not refute the fact that the vitriol used by Trump’s critics likely triggered both Crooks and Routh to “do something terrible.” Using Trump’s rhetoric as a pretext for his assassination is deranged.
Jerry Melsky
Sep 26 2024 at 12:46pm
Great Post, well argued and convincing.
But, when I read this:
it seemed like a very persuasive argument for policing the pubic discourse even though I very much doubt that was Mr. Corcoran’s intent. What is the solution to this externality problem? Self policing of our own discourse, I would hope.
Kevin Corcoran
Sep 26 2024 at 4:18pm
Policing our own discourse, yes, along with enforcing a social stigma against engaging in the described behaviors.
nobody.really
Sep 27 2024 at 1:43am
I know this isn’t the focus of this post, but I’m curious: What other explanation do you propose?
BC
Oct 1 2024 at 2:15am
Consider two white guys. They share the same race so there is no racial dimension. I know nothing about them, so they are equal in my mind. I don’t consider one to be “superior” to the other. I hold no a priori beliefs about which one would achieve a better outcome along any dimension. Yet, I would not be surprised at all if one were to achieve a better outcome than the other along any given dimension — income, wealth, athletic achievement, musical achievement, whatever — even in the absence of any privilege or unfair advantage. In fact, I would expect it. So, one can expect ex-post unequal outcomes even from a priori equal people. Since racial outcomes are nothing more than aggregations of outcomes of individuals that happen to share the same race, one can similarly expect ex-post unequal racial outcomes from a priori equal people, even in the absence of any discrimination. Someone has to do better than the other.
nobody.really
Oct 1 2024 at 4:09pm
Did you ever see Tom Stoppard’s Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead? In a subplot in Shakespeare’s Hamlet, two incidental characters–Rosencrantz and Guildenstern–get sent off to meaningless deaths. Tom Stoppard’s play uses these characters to explore the idea of fate. The two characters are repeatedly confronted with premonitions of their own deaths. All the while, they pass time by betting on a coin flip. Rosencrantz flips 92 heads in a row. This is done to metaphorically (and humorously) signal that their fates are sealed.
To say that there is nothing surprising that two people might arrive at different outcomes is fine—when discussing N=2. But how many Ns do you need to see, over how many years, to conclude that there’s a correlation between race and outcome? And how many years must this pattern continue until you acknowledge that there’s got to be a causal relationship somewhere?
Maybe the answer is “infinite.” Maybe when you see a coin coming up heads 92 times in a row, you simply conclude that there’s no meaning in it, that chance produces such a result from time to time, and there’s nothing to explain.
I’m no statistician, but I find that view hard to believe. I don’t mean to suggest that it’s impossible for a single coin to flip heads 92 times in a row. But given the choice between believing that such an event occurred at random, or believing that this outcome is the result of a cause—a loaded coin? an illusion? a dream? a mental defect? an optical defect?—I’m going to suspect a causal relationship. Likewise, when I see centuries of disparities in outcomes correlated with race, I suspect a causal relationship there, too. We might have a rich discussion about various caual theories. But the idea that racial disparities are purely a result of chance strikes me as beyond credible.
Robert EV
Oct 2 2024 at 12:26pm
I believe in statistics there are hypothesis testing strategies that involve arbitrarily dividing up the data into separate sets an arbitrary number of ways. Without really, really good data that covers every single parameter, this doesn’t tell you cause and effect, but it can be used to test correlations.
nobody.really
Oct 1 2024 at 5:59pm
What is the best way to determine how many people died due to the Covid epidemic? People have proposed various methods. I favor the “excess deaths” method: You develop a model of how many deaths you would expect in a population in the absence of Covid. To the extent that the death toll differs from the expected value, I attribute that difference to Covid. This method captures deaths that were in fact due to Covid even when the causal relationship is too obscure for people to follow.
Likewise, I favor the idea of measuring the influence of race by creating a model of outcomes I would expect to observe in the absence of racial influence. The disparity I attribute to race.
True, I may not be able to trace a causal path in either circumstance. If I recall correctly, Africa experienced a surge of deaths during the Covid epidemic, even though African sources attributed relatively few deaths to Covid. Maybe it was all just a curious coincidence? Maybe—but that is not my working hypothesis. Likewise with race.
Robert EV
Oct 1 2024 at 1:45pm
I don’t know that explanations are all that important. What’s important is understanding societal and individual barriers to a person achieving to their full potential, and addressing those barriers. This is a monstrously difficult task, especially as what’s good for one person will be bad for another.
Races are pretty arbitrarily divided at the level of granularity that currently exists. I saw a 1960s racial classification chart recently that classified black skinned people from the horn of Africa region as Caucasian, for instance. It even puts Australian aborigines in with the Black group despite them being the earliest split off lineage since the most recent migration out of Africa.
https://i.redd.it/3pi1ri3ac46d1.png
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/dna-tests-suggest-aboriginal-australians-have-oldest-society-planet-180960569/
nobody.really
Oct 1 2024 at 5:43pm
I largely share this perspective. But acting on this idea requires maintaining a kind of disinterested perspective in each person’s circumstances. Public Choice theory gives me cause to doubt the plausibility of maintaining such a perspective, at least holding it for very long. In contrast, some people argue for acting on this idea by harnessing the power of individual perspectives/autonomy/property rights. For example, Robert Nozick argued in Anarchy, State, and Utopia (1974) at 231 as follows:
That is, before I can make an appeal to distributive justice, it may be necessary as a practical matter to evaluate which groups are least well-off.
But maybe not! Perhaps it would suffice to focus on which INDIVIDUALS are least well-off. And perhaps the very concept of “least well-off” indicates that the relevant criterion should be social class rather than race. Many wrinkles here….
Robert EV
Oct 2 2024 at 12:54pm
Egad! I just want to start off with schooling that doesn’t assume a child is a blank slate. If you look at alternative schooling regimes (Montessori, unschooling, Goddard, Waldorf, KIPP, and a host of others) you find a host of philosophies that are either predicated on what’s easiest for the adults, a balance of interests, or are based on the personal philosophies of the founders. Some of these are going to be better fits for some students, while others are going to be better fits for others. I’d like a selection process that helps fit kids into the best schooling for them (or even between multiple options if that’s best for them), while still exposing them to the other alternatives so that they aren’t prematurely placed into a non-ideal situation.
After that, diverse employment options that include employee-owned and managed businesses, as well as sole-proprietorships and co-ops, in addition to the hierarchical businesses that are so common in the US (I believe in a republican form of government, but this is not all that prevalent in US employment).